Lorient
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lens were slight favourites.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lens. Lorient had 6 days of rest, Lens 6.1 and had to travel 541 km.
Away travel541 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Lorient25%
Draw26%
Lens50%
Lorient28%
Draw26%
Lens46%
Lorient25%
Draw26%
Lens50%
Lorient19%
Draw24%
Lens57%
Lorient25%
Draw26%
Lens50%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lorient)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceThomas Leonard
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 86
Team strength
Lorient
Lens
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
28
AttackIn forecast
63
45
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LorientLens
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.92
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.84
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
72%
Scored inContext
84%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.28
ShotsContext
14.44
3.68
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
33%
On target shareContext
35%
7.16
Shots in the boxContext
10.21
64%
Box shareContext
71%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.18
OffsidesContext
2.79
10.16
Shots allowedContext
10.88
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.91
BlocksContext
3.54
2.55
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
62%
Save rateContext
75%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
420
PassesContext
441
356
Accurate passesContext
374
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.04
9.72
FoulsContext
13.12
13.76
Fouls sufferedContext
12.68
1.68
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.86
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.83
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
80%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
10.70
ShotsContext
15.70
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
33%
On target shareContext
31%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
10.22
59%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.86
11.20
Shots allowedContext
8.60
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.75
3.30
BlocksContext
2.30
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
65%
Save rateContext
76%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
447
PassesContext
443
383
Accurate passesContext
377
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.89
Team ratingContext
7.04
8.30
FoulsContext
13.70
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lorient
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,144 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lens
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel541 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lorient |
Lens |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Mar | 6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 541 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,144 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
25A. Faye
3M. Talbi
5B. Meïté
43Arsène Kouassi
62A. Avom
8Noah Cadiou
11T. Le Bris
29D. Karim
17J. Makengo
12B. Dieng
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
20M. Sarr
25P. Ganiou
4N. Čelik
14M. Udol
28A. Thomasson
8M. Sangaré
23S. Abdulhamid
19A. Sima
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lorient
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lens
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lorient+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Lens-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Lorient · Home
1.92points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Lens · Away
1.92points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-3
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 1.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lorient | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Lille | D 1–1 AL 1–7 H | W 3–0 H |
| Auxerre | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Nice | D 3–3 AW 3–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Angers | W 2–0 HL 0–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 AD 3–3 H | W 3–1 H |
| Nantes | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Rennes | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H | W 3–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Monaco | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | L 2–3 HW 4–1 A |
| Metz | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Strasbourg | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Lyon | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Toulouse | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Paris FC | L 0–2 A | W 5–0 AW 2–1 H |
| LE Havre | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Marseille | L 0–4 A | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Points | 34 of 72 · 1.42 per game | 53 of 72 · 2.21 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Lorient wins2 draws4 Lens wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.14
Over 2.557%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets29% · 43%
- 2 Nov 2025Lens3–0Lorient
- 3 May 2024Lens2–0Lorient
- 4 Nov 2023Lorient0–0Lens
- 21 May 2023Lorient1–3Lens
- 31 Aug 2022Lens5–2Lorient
- 6 Feb 2022Lorient2–0Lens
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lorient | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.92 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 0.84 | |
| Match goals | 2.96 | 2.76 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 64% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 48% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 28% | 16% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Lorient | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lorient | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.35 | 5.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.74 | 3.79 | |
| Match total | 8.09 | 9.62 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 39% 9/23 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 7/23 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 5/23 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.72 | 1.96 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.24 | 2.28 | |
| Match total | 3.96 | 4.24 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 14/25 | 60% 15/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 10/25 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Lorient | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 7.80 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.90 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Leonard France · 86 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.57league 3.71
Red cards0.26league 0.28
Cards 5+41%league 36%
Fouls24.2league 24.0
Penalties0.26league 0.38
Home wins38%league 49%
Lorient6 with this referee
Record1-4-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L12 Sep 25A · Marseille0–43
- W18 Feb 24A · Strasbourg3–11
- D3 Dec 23A · Toulouse1–14
- D5 Mar 23A · Lyon0–00
- D24 Oct 21H · Bordeaux1–14
Lens10 with this referee
Record7-2-1
Cards · opp.1.1 · 2.4
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W8 Mar 25A · Marseille1–01
- W18 Aug 24A · Angers1–00
- D19 May 24H · Montpellier2–20
- W27 May 23H · Ajaccio3–01
- L1 Feb 23H · Nice0–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lorient25 games · scored 35 · conceded 39
3
5
0-15
3
6
16-30
9
4
31-45
5
8
46-60
6
3
61-75
9
13
76-90
Lens25 games · scored 48 · conceded 21
5
4
0-15
5
4
16-30
10
4
31-45
11
1
46-60
5
5
61-75
12
3
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 22 · conceded 8
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
7
46-60
2
4
61-75
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
