Lorient
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were slight favourites.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 21). Absences weigh more on Monaco. Lorient had 6 days of rest, Monaco 6 and had to travel 948 km.
Away travel948 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Lorient22%
Draw25%
Monaco53%
Lorient22%
Draw25%
Monaco54%
Lorient21%
Draw25%
Monaco54%
Lorient17%
Draw23%
Monaco60%
Lorient23%
Draw25%
Monaco52%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lorient)
No weather data yet
RefereeRuddy Buquet
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 63
Team strength
Lorient
Monaco
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
28
AttackIn forecast
45
45
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LorientMonaco
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.84
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.76
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.60
ShotsContext
11.60
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
32%
On target shareContext
28%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
71%
Box shareContext
77%
11%
ConversionContext
22%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.25
11.60
Shots allowedContext
10.40
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
3.50
BlocksContext
2.80
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
52%
Save rateContext
62%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
395
PassesContext
499
332
Accurate passesContext
421
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.57
Team ratingContext
6.85
13.20
FoulsContext
13.00
16.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
3.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.60
ShotsContext
11.70
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
34%
On target shareContext
36%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
66%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
17%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.71
12.80
Shots allowedContext
11.90
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.00
BlocksContext
3.40
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
57%
Save rateContext
60%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
399
PassesContext
475
329
Accurate passesContext
401
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.80
FoulsContext
12.30
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lorient
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km642 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Monaco
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel948 km1,083 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lorient |
Monaco |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Sep | 6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 948 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 642 km | 1,083 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
25A. Faye
3M. Talbi
5B. Meïté
43Arsène Kouassi
6L. Abergel
62A. Avom
11T. Le Bris
29D. Karim
15A. Tosin
9M. Bamba
Monaco
Confirmed XI
16P. Köhn(G)
13C. Mawissa
3E. Dier
5J. Kehrer
12Caio Henrique
28M. Coulibaly
4J. Teze
18T. Minamino
2Vanderson
14M. Biereth
19G. Ilenikhena
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lorient
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Monaco
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lorient+1.3 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Monaco-1.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Lorient · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 3.50
Monaco · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Lorient | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| LE Havre | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Lille | L 1–7 H | L 0–1 A |
| Auxerre | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Lorient wins4 draws1 Monaco wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.50
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 17 Mar 2024Monaco2–2Lorient
- 17 Sep 2023Lorient2–2Monaco
- 16 Apr 2023Monaco3–1Lorient
- 11 Jan 2023Lorient2–2Monaco
- 13 Feb 2022Monaco0–0Lorient
- 13 Aug 2021Lorient1–0Monaco
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lorient | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 4.00 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Lorient | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 4.00 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lorient | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.75 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 7.75 | 10.00 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 4.00 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 6.80 | 3.60 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 5/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 5/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Lorient | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 8.78 | 9.50 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 3.20 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ruddy Buquet 63 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.97league 3.72
Red cards0.44league 0.37
Cards 5+46%league 39%
Fouls24.0league 24.0
Penalties0.35league 0.52
Home wins41%league 65%
Lorient5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D19 Mar 23A · Nice1–13
- W16 Sep 22A · Auxerre3–11
- D14 May 22A · Bordeaux0–04
- W8 Apr 22H · Saint Etienne6–22
- L5 Dec 21H · Nantes0–11
Monaco10 with this referee
Record6-2-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds4
- W16 Aug 25H · LE Havre3–10
- W21 Apr 24A · Stade Brestois 292–04
- D1 Mar 24H · Paris Saint Germain0–00
- L15 Dec 23H · Lyon0–11
- W20 Aug 23H · Strasbourg3–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lorient5 games · scored 6 · conceded 13
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
61-75
6
76-90
Monaco5 games · scored 13 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
2
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 14 · conceded 24
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
8
46-60
5
61-75
1
9
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 20 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
6
7
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
