Lorient vs Rennes – 24 Aug 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 24 · 14:00 Stade du Moustoir – Yves Allainmat, Lorient

Lorient 15th · 0 pts · 1 played L

4–0Full time

Rennes 6th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Rennes were slight favourites.

Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 21). Lorient had 6.9 days of rest, Rennes 8.8 and had to travel 133 km.

Away travel133 kmRest days6.9 · 8.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Lorient31%

Draw27%

Rennes42%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.44

Lorient31%

Draw27%

Rennes42%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.47

Lorient31%

Draw27%

Rennes42%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.44

Lorient25%

Draw26%

Rennes49%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.62

Lorient31%

Draw27%

Rennes42%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.47

Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lorient)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.37
Matches 89

Team strength

Lorient

Rennes

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 40

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 52

28 AttackIn forecast 63

45 DefenceIn forecast 39

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Rennes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lorient

Rennes

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

— xGVia Att/Def 1.45

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

— Goals minus xGContext +0.25

50% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.70 ShotsContext 12.70

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

35% On target shareContext 39%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.44

66% Box shareContext 64%

7% ConversionContext 13%

2.56 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.10 Shots allowedContext 12.00

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

2.30 BlocksContext 3.67

3.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

69% Save rateContext 68%

48% PossessionIn forecast 51%

437 PassesContext 467

361 Accurate passesContext 405

83% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.86 Team ratingContext 7.05

11.90 FoulsContext 12.40

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lorient

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,037 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Rennes

Rest8.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel133 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lorient	Rennes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 Aug	8.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 15 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	133 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,037 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lorient Confirmed XI

3-4-3

21B. Kamara(G)

2Igor Silva 3M. Talbi 5F. Mendy

43Arsène Kouassi 62A. Avom 6L. Abergel 77P. Katseris

29D. Karim 28S. Soumano 15A. Tosin

Rennes Confirmed XI

3-5-2

30B. Samba(G)

24A. Rouault 97J. Jacquet 4C. Wooh

26Q. Merlin 8S. Fofana 21V. Rongier 32F. Rieder 45M. Camara

39M. Meïté 10L. Blas

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lorient Absences are shown before kick-off

Rennes Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lorient+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Rennes+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Lorient · Home No home games yet this season.

Rennes · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Lorient wins0 draws2 Rennes wins

Goals per game1.17 – 1.67 Over 2.567% Both scored50% Clean sheets17% · 33%

3 Mar 2024Rennes1–2Lorient
22 Oct 2023Lorient2–1Rennes
27 Jan 2023Lorient2–1Rennes
7 Aug 2022Rennes0–1Lorient
24 Apr 2022Rennes5–0Lorient
28 Nov 2021Lorient0–2Rennes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lorient	Rennes	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.00
Match goals	1.00	1.00	2.65
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	49%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Lorient	Rennes	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.00
Match goals	1.00	1.00	2.65
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	49%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lorient	Rennes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	1.00
Corners conceded	4.00	12.00
Match total	8.00	13.00	9.42
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.00
Opponent cards	3.00	3.00
Match total	5.00	6.00	3.58
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Lorient	Rennes	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	4.67
Corners conceded	4.70	5.67
Match total	10.10	10.34	9.42
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.60
Opponent cards	2.40	1.90
Match total	4.80	3.50	3.58
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 89 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.39league 3.08

Red cards0.22league 0.23

Cards 5+30%league 38%

Fouls24.1league 23.1

Penalties0.37league 0.31

Home wins35%league 62%

Lorient3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L31 Mar 24H · Stade Brestois 290–11
W30 Apr 23A · Paris Saint Germain3–13
D11 Jan 23H · Monaco2–21

Rennes4 with this referee

Record1-1-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.5 Pens for · against1 · 1

L3 Jan 25A · Nice2–33
D16 Sep 23H · Lille2–21
W3 Jun 23A · Stade Brestois 292–14
L27 Aug 22A · Lens1–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.