Lorient vs Toulouse – 12 Sep 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 4 Sat, Sep 12 · 19:45 Stade du Moustoir – Yves Allainmat, Lorient

Lorient 8th · 4 pts · 3 played DLW

2–2Full time

Toulouse 17th · 1 pts · 3 played LDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lorient were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Lorient had 7.1 days of rest, Toulouse 9 and had to travel 593 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel593 kmRest days7.1 · 9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Lorient46%

Draw25%

Toulouse29%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.22

Lorient44%

Draw26%

Toulouse31%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Lorient43%

Draw26%

Toulouse31%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.23

Lorient38%

Draw25%

Toulouse36%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.36

Lorient46%

Draw25%

Toulouse30%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.24

Over 2.5 53% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lorient)

19°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 10 km/h
Humidity 73%

RefereeAurelien Petit

Cards per match 2.0
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 1

Team strength

Lorient

Toulouse

33 L90 StrengthIn forecast 34

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

28 AttackIn forecast 45

45 DefenceIn forecast 49

42 Form indexContext 23

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Toulouse

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lorient

Toulouse

0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67

0.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.95

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72

-0.52 Goals minus xGContext -1.28

67% Scored inContext 33%

67% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.00 ShotsContext 15.67

3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

33% On target shareContext 30%

7.33 Shots in the boxContext 10.33

68% Box shareContext 66%

6% ConversionContext 4%

— OffsidesContext 2.50

14.33 Shots allowedContext 15.33

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33

5.00 BlocksContext 4.00

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

100% Save rateContext 69%

50% PossessionIn forecast 50%

516 PassesContext 460

442 Accurate passesContext 392

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.92

7.67 FoulsContext 16.00

14.67 Fouls sufferedContext 14.33

0.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.67

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.42 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.08

70% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.90 ShotsContext 11.30

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

37% On target shareContext 31%

6.11 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

60% Box shareContext 54%

12% ConversionContext 10%

1.88 OffsidesContext 3.00

12.30 Shots allowedContext 15.50

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.80

3.63 BlocksContext 5.13

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

79% Save rateContext 66%

46% PossessionIn forecast 42%

430 PassesContext 350

369 Accurate passesContext 291

86% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.76

8.50 FoulsContext 14.30

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

0.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lorient DLW

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,082 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 42 · 4 pts vs 4.9 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected

W5 SepA · Lens1–00.6 xPts
L29 AugH · Estac Troyes1–22.1 xPts
D22 AugA · Nice0–01.3 xPts

Toulouse LDL

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel593 km1,403 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 23 · 1 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected

L3 SepH · Lille0–11.1 xPts
D29 AugA · Stade Brestois 292–21.3 xPts
L22 AugH · Lyon0–21.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lorient	Toulouse
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 5 Sep	9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 3 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	593 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,082 km	1,403 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lorient Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

38Y. Mvogo(G)

32N. Adjei 3M. Talbi 20D. Sylla

43Arsène Kouassi 72N. Mbamba 8Noah Cadiou 77P. Katseris

17J. Makengo 33Gabin Bernardeau

18I. Baldé

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Toulouse Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

60M. Niflore(G)

12C. Tapé 3M. McKenzie 5S. Koumbassa 22R. Messali

23C. Cásseres 31N. Schmidt

37Ilyas Azizi 8T. Jørgensen 9S. Hidalgo

13J. Russell-Rowe

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lorient Absences are shown before kick-off

Toulouse Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lorient+2.4 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Toulouse-1.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Lorient · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Toulouse · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Lorient wins3 draws3 Toulouse wins

Goals per game0.83 – 1.33 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

21 Mar 2026Toulouse1–0Lorient
9 Nov 2025Lorient1–1Toulouse
28 Apr 2024Lorient1–2Toulouse
3 Dec 2023Toulouse1–1Lorient
23 Apr 2023Lorient0–1Toulouse
21 Aug 2022Toulouse2–2Lorient

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lorient	Toulouse	Forecast
Scored per game	0.67	0.67
Conceded per game	0.67	1.67
Match goals	1.33	2.33	2.79
Over 1.5	33%	67%
Over 2.5	33%	33%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	33%
Both teams scored	33%	33%	56%
Clean sheets	67%	0%
Failed to score	33%	67%
Games	3	3

	Lorient	Toulouse	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.10
Conceded per game	1.20	1.90
Match goals	2.50	3.00	2.79
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	53%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	56%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lorient	Toulouse	League
Corners
Corners won	2.50	4.67
Corners conceded	7.00	4.67
Match total	9.50	9.34	10.33
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	67% 2/3
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	33% 1/3
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	33% 1/3
Cards
Cards	0.33	1.67
Opponent cards	1.33	1.33
Match total	1.66	3.00	3.13
Over 3.5	33% 1/3	33% 1/3
Over 4.5	0% 0/3	33% 1/3

	Lorient	Toulouse	League
Corners
Corners won	3.78	3.60
Corners conceded	6.33	5.50
Match total	10.11	9.10	10.33
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	0.90	2.30
Opponent cards	2.00	1.00
Match total	2.90	3.30	3.13
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Aurelien Petit 1 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.00league 2.97

Red cards0.00league 0.14

Cards 5+0%league 17%

Fouls26.0league 22.8

Penalties0.00league 0.41

Home wins0%league 28%

Lorient

No previous matches with this referee.

Toulouse

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.