Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were slight favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Auxerre. Lyon had 5.8 days of rest, Auxerre 6 and had to travel 249 km.
Away travel249 kmRest days5.8 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lyon56%
Draw25%
Auxerre19%
Lyon66%
Draw20%
Auxerre13%
Lyon56%
Draw25%
Auxerre19%
Lyon49%
Draw27%
Auxerre24%
Lyon55%
Draw25%
Auxerre20%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
No weather data yet
RefereeRuddy Buquet
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 75
Team strength
Lyon
Auxerre
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
60
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
55
AttackIn forecast
39
56
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAuxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonAuxerre
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
83%
Scored inContext
47%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
11.43
ShotsContext
10.20
4.37
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.52
38%
On target shareContext
31%
7.93
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
67%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.11
11.47
Shots allowedContext
11.47
3.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.04
BlocksContext
3.15
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
78%
Save rateContext
73%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
462
PassesContext
363
397
Accurate passesContext
291
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.17
FoulsContext
13.20
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
14.17
1.93
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
70%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.70
ShotsContext
10.20
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
36%
On target shareContext
32%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.22
61%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.75
13.30
Shots allowedContext
11.80
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.00
BlocksContext
3.67
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
78%
Save rateContext
76%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
463
PassesContext
340
398
Accurate passesContext
268
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.94
11.60
FoulsContext
12.90
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km791 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Auxerre
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel249 km1,083 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
Auxerre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Apr | 6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 249 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 791 km | 1,083 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
5O. Mangala
23T. Morton
17Afonso Moreira
44Khalis Merah
9Endrick
77R. Yaremchuk
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
40T. De Percin(G)
14G. Mensah
24B. Okoh
20S. Diomandé
29M. Senaya
5K. Danois
42E. Owusu
22F. Oppegård
19D. Namaso
28R. Faivre
10L. Sinayoko
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Auxerre
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Auxerre+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
2.21points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-1-3
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 0.71
Auxerre · Away
0.60points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-6-8
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lyon | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Lorient | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Angers | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Monaco | L 1–2 HW 3–1 A | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Paris FC | D 1–1 HD 3–3 A | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Marseille | L 2–3 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Strasbourg | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Nice | W 2–0 HL 2–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Nantes | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Lille | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | L 3–4 H |
| Metz | W 5–2 AW 3–0 H | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Toulouse | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Rennes | L 1–3 A | L 0–3 HD 2–2 A |
| Lens | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Points | 53 of 87 · 1.83 per game | 24 of 87 · 0.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Lyon wins2 draws1 Auxerre wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.20
Over 2.580%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 23 Nov 2025Auxerre0–0Lyon
- 13 Apr 2025Auxerre1–3Lyon
- 27 Oct 2024Lyon2–2Auxerre
- 17 Feb 2023Auxerre2–1Lyon
- 31 Aug 2022Lyon2–1Auxerre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.13 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 37% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 53% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Lyon | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.10 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.04 | 4.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.93 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.97 | 9.07 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 19/28 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 9/28 | 33% 10/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 8/28 | 27% 8/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.73 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 4.90 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 77% 23/30 | 80% 24/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 14/30 | 47% 14/30 | |
| Lyon | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.88 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 9.00 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.60 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ruddy Buquet 75 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.80league 3.67
Red cards0.39league 0.27
Cards 5+41%league 36%
Fouls23.8league 23.7
Penalties0.33league 0.36
Home wins40%league 47%
Lyon10 with this referee
Record3-3-4
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 3
Reds2
- D5 Apr 26A · Angers0–00
- L22 Feb 26A · Strasbourg1–33
- L14 Sep 25A · Rennes1–33
- W15 Dec 23A · Monaco1–02
- L14 May 23A · Clermont Foot1–23
Auxerre4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D1 Mar 26A · Lorient2–23
- L29 Oct 25A · Strasbourg0–31
- L16 Sep 22H · Lorient1–33
- D14 Aug 22H · Angers2–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon30 games · scored 45 · conceded 30
6
1
0-15
8
2
16-30
10
6
31-45
9
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
9
13
76-90
Auxerre30 games · scored 25 · conceded 39
5
4
0-15
3
8
16-30
5
6
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
3
61-75
4
11
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
4
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
