Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were clear favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 27). Lyon had 5.9 days of rest, Auxerre 5.9 and had to travel 249 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel249 kmRest days5.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d3 · 2
Lyon67%
Draw18%
Auxerre15%
Lyon62%
Draw21%
Auxerre16%
Lyon66%
Draw19%
Auxerre15%
Lyon59%
Draw21%
Auxerre20%
Lyon66%
Draw19%
Auxerre15%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
Heat stress
33°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 5 km/h
- Humidity 26%
RefereeRuddy Buquet
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 79
Team strength
Lyon
Auxerre
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
55
AttackIn forecast
39
56
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAuxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonAuxerre
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
4.00
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
3.03
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.00
ShotsContext
14.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
31%
On target shareContext
38%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
72%
Box shareContext
49%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.50
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.50
3.00
BlocksContext
3.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
83%
Save rateContext
47%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
470
PassesContext
456
403
Accurate passesContext
386
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.11
Team ratingContext
6.43
11.00
FoulsContext
18.50
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
6.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.50
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.84
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.72
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.80
ShotsContext
11.60
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.22
38%
On target shareContext
41%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.13
67%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.89
11.70
Shots allowedContext
11.30
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
2.67
BlocksContext
2.60
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
68%
Save rateContext
62%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
448
PassesContext
371
383
Accurate passesContext
300
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.30
FoulsContext
15.00
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
WD
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km735 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 55 · 4 pts vs 3.4 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
Auxerre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 5.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 249 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 735 km | 596 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
20F. Bacher
13Z. Athekame
8C. Tolisso
23T. Morton
2M. Bidstrup
17I. Openda
10P. Šulc
7E. Nuamah
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
23M. Diop(G)
92C. Akpa
35Elikya Legros
15C. Makosso
27L. Sy
46A. Piedfort
5K. Danois
3R. Labeau-Lascary
8N. Ahamada
10D. Namaso
9C. Archer
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Absences are shown before kick-off
Auxerre
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Auxerre-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Auxerre · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 5.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Lyon wins2 draws1 Auxerre wins
Goals per game1.83 – 1.33
Over 2.583%
Both scored83%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 25 Apr 2026Lyon3–2Auxerre
- 23 Nov 2025Auxerre0–0Lyon
- 13 Apr 2025Auxerre1–3Lyon
- 27 Oct 2024Lyon2–2Auxerre
- 17 Feb 2023Auxerre2–1Lyon
- 31 Aug 2022Lyon2–1Auxerre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 5.50 | 3.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Lyon | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 14.00 | 10.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 4.00 | 3.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Lyon | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.89 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 13.11 | 9.90 | 10.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.90 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ruddy Buquet 79 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.76league 3.00
Red cards0.38league 0.16
Cards 5+39%league 21%
Fouls23.7league 22.9
Penalties0.33league 0.47
Home wins42%league 32%
Lyon11 with this referee
Record4-3-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 3
Reds2
- W25 Apr 26H · Auxerre3–21
- D5 Apr 26A · Angers0–00
- L22 Feb 26A · Strasbourg1–33
- L14 Sep 25A · Rennes1–33
- W15 Dec 23A · Monaco1–02
Auxerre5 with this referee
Record0-2-3
Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L25 Apr 26A · Lyon2–32
- D1 Mar 26A · Lorient2–23
- L29 Oct 25A · Strasbourg0–31
- L16 Sep 22H · Lorient1–33
- D14 Aug 22H · Angers2–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon2 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Auxerre2 games · scored 3 · conceded 8
2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
8
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
6
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
