Lyon vs LE Havre – 29 Aug 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 29 · 19:45 Groupama Stadium, Décines-Charpieu

Lyon 4th · 3 pts · 1 played W

1–1Full time

LE Havre 15th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lyon were clear favourites.

Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for LE Havre. Lyon had 3 days of rest, LE Havre 6.1 and had to travel 551 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel551 kmRest days3 · 6.1Matches / 14d3 · 1

Lyon65%

Draw19%

LE Havre15%

Expected goals 2.16 – 0.93

Lyon65%

Draw20%

LE Havre15%

Expected goals 2.08 – 0.86

Lyon65%

Draw20%

LE Havre16%

Expected goals 2.12 – 0.93

Lyon58%

Draw22%

LE Havre20%

Expected goals 1.92 – 1.04

Lyon65%

Draw20%

LE Havre15%

Expected goals 2.13 – 0.93

Over 2.5 60% Both score 54% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Décines-Charpieu)

24°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 7 km/h
Humidity 49%

Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.34
Matches 134

Team strength

Lyon

LE Havre

57 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24

60 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

55 AttackIn forecast 20

56 DefenceIn forecast 22

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lyon

Attack—

Defense risk—

LE Havre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lyon

LE Havre

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.13

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

90% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.80 ShotsContext 11.10

5.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

41% On target shareContext 38%

9.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

67% Box shareContext 67%

13% ConversionContext 11%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.90

12.70 Shots allowedContext 13.10

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

3.11 BlocksContext 3.30

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

68% Save rateContext 81%

51% PossessionIn forecast 48%

426 PassesContext 356

362 Accurate passesContext 289

85% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.85

11.40 FoulsContext 13.90

13.90 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lyon W

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km4,737 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

Form 64 · 3 pts vs 1.4 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected

W22 AugA · Toulouse2–01.5 xPts

LE Havre L

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel551 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 37 · 0 pts vs 1.5 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected

L23 AugH · Monaco0–11.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lyon	LE Havre
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 26 Aug	6.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 23 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	551 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	4,737 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lyon Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1D. Greif(G)

3N. Tagliafico 19M. Niakhaté 20F. Bacher 13Z. Athekame

23T. Morton 2M. Bidstrup

26K. Boudache 8C. Tolisso 7E. Nuamah

17I. Openda

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

LE Havre Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

77Lionel M'Pasi(G)

5A. Touba 6J. Mwanga 15A. Seko

32T. Pembélé 7M. Richardson 26S. Ebonog 33D. Ouziad

17K. Mizuta 14R. Ndiaye

25M. Samatta

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lyon Absences are shown before kick-off

LE Havre Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lyon+0.8 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
LE Havre-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Lyon · Home No home games yet this season.

LE Havre · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Lyon wins2 draws1 LE Havre wins

Goals per game1.67 – 0.83 Over 2.550% Both scored33% Clean sheets67% · 33%

15 Mar 2026LE Havre0–0Lyon
14 Dec 2025Lyon1–0LE Havre
16 Mar 2025Lyon4–2LE Havre
20 Oct 2024LE Havre0–4Lyon
14 Jan 2024LE Havre3–1Lyon
17 Sep 2023Lyon0–0LE Havre

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lyon	LE Havre	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.00
Match goals	2.00	1.00	3.09
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	60%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	54%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Lyon	LE Havre	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.20
Conceded per game	1.60	1.30
Match goals	3.40	2.50	3.09
Over 1.5	100%	70%
Over 2.5	80%	20%	60%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	54%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lyon	LE Havre	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	7.00
Corners conceded	6.00	4.00
Match total	11.00	11.00	10.11
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.00
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	3.00	5.00	3.22
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Lyon	LE Havre	League
Corners
Corners won	7.89	3.78
Corners conceded	6.11	5.56
Match total	14.00	9.34	10.11
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	78% 7/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.10	2.40
Opponent cards	3.00	1.80
Match total	4.10	4.20	3.22
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · François Letexier France · 134 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.99league 3.09

Red cards0.25league 0.18

Cards 5+43%league 9%

Fouls22.2league 22.5

Penalties0.34league 0.45

Home wins51%league 27%

Lyon17 with this referee

Record7-2-8 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.1 Pens for · against1 · 3 Reds2

L17 May 26H · Lens0–41
L22 Mar 26H · Monaco1–22
W1 Feb 26H · Lille1–00
W31 Aug 25H · Marseille1–02
L20 Apr 25A · Saint Etienne1–24

LE Havre5 with this referee

Record0-3-2 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.2 Pens for · against2 · 3 Reds1

D26 Apr 26H · Metz4–43
L23 Feb 25H · Toulouse1–41
L7 Dec 24A · Nice1–22
D6 Apr 24A · Lens1–15
D20 Oct 23H · Lens0–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.