Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were clear favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 17). Lyon had 7.2 days of rest, Metz 6.2 and had to travel 382 km.
Away travel382 kmRest days7.2 · 6.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Lyon73%
Draw17%
Metz10%
Lyon73%
Draw18%
Metz10%
Lyon73%
Draw17%
Metz10%
Lyon66%
Draw20%
Metz13%
Lyon73%
Draw18%
Metz10%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceEric Wattellier
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 80
Team strength
Lyon
Metz
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
60
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
55
AttackIn forecast
11
56
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMetz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonMetz
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
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—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
—
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.20
ShotsContext
8.80
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
34%
On target shareContext
39%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
65%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
2.88
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.40
Shots allowedContext
16.70
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
3.00
BlocksContext
4.20
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
61%
Save rateContext
61%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
33%
525
PassesContext
294
462
Accurate passesContext
216
88%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.70
FoulsContext
12.70
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,084 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Metz
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel382 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
Metz |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 16 Aug | 6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 382 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,084 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
40R. Descamps(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
23T. Morton
6F. Tessmann
11M. Fofana
8C. Tolisso
10P. Šulc
69G. Mikautadze
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
4Urie-Michel Mboula
5J. Gbamin
38S. Sané
39K. Kouao
8B. Traoré
21B. Stambouli
9G. Abuashvili
10G. Hein
7G. Tsitaishvili
24Brian Madjo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Absences are shown before kick-off
Metz
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Metz+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
No home games yet this season.
Metz · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Lyon wins2 draws1 Metz wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 23 Feb 2024Metz1–2Lyon
- 5 Nov 2023Lyon1–1Metz
- 8 May 2022Metz3–2Lyon
- 22 Dec 2021Lyon1–1Metz
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 1.00 | 3.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Lyon | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 1.00 | 3.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 13.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 21.00 | 6.00 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.00 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Lyon | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 11.10 | 8.90 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.10 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 80 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.19league 3.17
Red cards0.21league 0.25
Cards 5+24%league 42%
Fouls20.5league 22.7
Penalties0.31league 0.33
Home wins50%league 58%
Lyon12 with this referee
Record5-1-6
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.3
Pens for · against4 · 3
Reds1
- W5 Apr 25H · Lille2–13
- L23 Feb 25H · Paris Saint Germain2–31
- L11 Jan 25A · Stade Brestois 291–22
- W19 May 24H · Strasbourg2–11
- L26 Nov 23H · Lille0–22
Metz7 with this referee
Record3-1-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L30 Mar 24H · Monaco2–50
- W3 Mar 24A · Nantes2–02
- W8 May 22H · Lyon3–23
- L13 Feb 22H · Marseille1–22
- W12 Dec 21H · Lorient4–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon1 games · scored 1 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Metz1 games · scored 0 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 20 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
8
6
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 13 · conceded 22
2
7
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
