Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 54). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Rennes. Lyon had 8.2 days of rest, Rennes 7.1 and had to travel 567 km.
Away travel567 kmRest days8.2 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Lyon41%
Draw25%
Rennes34%
Lyon48%
Draw26%
Rennes26%
Lyon41%
Draw25%
Rennes34%
Lyon33%
Draw25%
Rennes42%
Lyon41%
Draw26%
Rennes34%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceClement Turpin
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 142
Team strength
Lyon
Rennes
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
60
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
55
AttackIn forecast
63
56
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonRennes
1.55
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.74
1.03
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.35
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
84%
Scored inContext
81%
48%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
11.45
ShotsContext
13.65
4.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
39%
On target shareContext
36%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.63
67%
Box shareContext
62%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.55
11.39
Shots allowedContext
12.32
3.77
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.71
4.08
BlocksContext
3.83
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.85
78%
Save rateContext
73%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
461
PassesContext
474
396
Accurate passesContext
404
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.89
13.10
FoulsContext
12.06
12.94
Fouls sufferedContext
11.71
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.68
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.67
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.50
ShotsContext
15.40
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
37%
On target shareContext
38%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
64%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.89
12.90
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
4.38
BlocksContext
3.20
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
82%
Save rateContext
85%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
461
PassesContext
511
397
Accurate passesContext
433
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.01
11.50
FoulsContext
12.40
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km791 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rennes
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel567 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
Rennes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 567 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 791 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
8C. Tolisso
23T. Morton
17Afonso Moreira
44Khalis Merah
9Endrick
77R. Yaremchuk
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
26Q. Merlin
3L. Brassier
48A. Aït Boudlal
36A. Seidu
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
45M. Camara
21V. Rongier
17S. Szymański
9E. Lepaul
7B. Embolo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rennes
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Rennes+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
2.27points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-1-3
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 0.80
Rennes · Away
1.67points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-4
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 1.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lyon | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | W 3–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | W 3–1 HL 0–5 A |
| Lorient | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A |
| Angers | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Monaco | L 1–2 HW 3–1 A | L 0–4 AW 4–1 H |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Paris FC | D 1–1 HD 3–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Marseille | L 2–3 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Strasbourg | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H | W 3–0 AW 4–1 H |
| Nice | W 2–0 HL 2–3 A | W 4–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Nantes | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Lille | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | L 1–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Metz | W 5–2 AW 3–0 H | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | W 4–3 AW 3–1 H |
| Toulouse | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Lens | W 1–0 A | L 1–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Points | 57 of 90 · 1.90 per game | 53 of 90 · 1.77 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Lyon wins0 draws6 Rennes wins
Goals per game1.78 – 2.44
Over 2.589%
Both scored78%
Clean sheets11% · 11%
- 14 Sep 2025Rennes3–1Lyon
- 26 Apr 2025Lyon4–1Rennes
- 18 Aug 2024Rennes3–0Lyon
- 26 Jan 2024Lyon2–3Rennes
- 12 Nov 2023Rennes0–1Lyon
- 9 Apr 2023Lyon3–1Rennes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.55 | 1.74 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.03 | 1.35 | |
| Match goals | 2.58 | 3.10 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 61% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 68% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 48% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 55% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 48% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 19% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Lyon | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.10 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.07 | 5.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.83 | 4.29 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 10.00 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 66% 19/29 | 65% 20/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 9/29 | 55% 17/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 8/29 | 42% 13/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 1.81 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.48 | 2.19 | |
| Match total | 4.61 | 4.00 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 74% 23/31 | 61% 19/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 14/31 | 45% 14/31 | |
| Lyon | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.38 | 6.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 9.13 | 9.80 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 3.70 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Clement Turpin France · 142 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.25league 3.69
Red cards0.25league 0.27
Cards 5+30%league 36%
Fouls23.0league 23.6
Penalties0.35league 0.37
Home wins39%league 46%
Lyon10 with this referee
Record2-3-5
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds2
- D2 Nov 25A · Stade Brestois 290–01
- W19 Sep 25H · Angers1–02
- W16 Feb 24H · Nice1–00
- L2 Dec 23A · Lens2–30
- D8 Oct 23H · Lorient3–30
Rennes8 with this referee
Record2-1-5
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds3
- L24 Jan 26H · Lorient0–22
- D29 Oct 25A · Toulouse2–23
- L9 Dec 23H · Monaco1–22
- L5 Nov 23A · Nice0–23
- W27 May 23H · Monaco2–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon31 games · scored 48 · conceded 32
6
1
0-15
9
2
16-30
10
7
31-45
9
3
46-60
5
5
61-75
9
14
76-90
Rennes31 games · scored 54 · conceded 42
6
6
0-15
15
1
16-30
5
8
31-45
11
8
46-60
6
9
61-75
11
10
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 23 · conceded 8
3
2
0-15
7
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
