Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Rennes. Lyon had 3 days of rest, Rennes 3 and had to travel 567 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel567 kmRest days3 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 3
Lyon46%
Draw23%
Rennes31%
Lyon46%
Draw25%
Rennes29%
Lyon47%
Draw23%
Rennes30%
Lyon38%
Draw23%
Rennes38%
Lyon46%
Draw23%
Rennes31%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
20°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 5 km/h
- Humidity 36%
Referee · FranceMathieu Vernice
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 63
Team strength
Lyon
Rennes
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
60
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
55
AttackIn forecast
63
56
DefenceIn forecast
39
73
Form indexContext
78
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonRennes
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.57
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
75%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.75
ShotsContext
17.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.75
29%
On target shareContext
34%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
71%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.67
10.75
Shots allowedContext
15.25
3.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.00
BlocksContext
5.50
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
85%
Save rateContext
72%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
478
PassesContext
462
411
Accurate passesContext
389
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.94
11.50
FoulsContext
13.25
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.75
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.94
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.89
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.90
ShotsContext
17.70
6.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
40%
On target shareContext
32%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
12.30
68%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.63
11.30
Shots allowedContext
15.60
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
2.20
BlocksContext
5.20
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
71%
Save rateContext
72%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
450
PassesContext
443
383
Accurate passesContext
370
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.94
12.00
FoulsContext
12.20
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
WDWDW
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,924 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +2.5 vs expected
Rennes
DWWWD
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel567 km2,792 km in 14d
Schedule load34%Moderate
Form 78 · 11 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · +3.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
Rennes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 13 | Moderate · 34 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 16 Sep | 3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 16 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 567 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,924 km | 2,792 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 6 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20 | 21.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
20F. Bacher
13Z. Athekame
23T. Morton
2M. Bidstrup
8C. Tolisso
10P. Šulc
7E. Nuamah
17I. Openda
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
26Q. Merlin
48A. Aït Boudlal
4C. Cresswell
95P. Frankowski
21V. Rongier
12Eliezer Mayenda
45M. Camara
28A. Thomasson
70A. Nordin
22B. Dia
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rennes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon-0.8 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Rennes+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Rennes · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Lyon wins0 draws6 Rennes wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.40
Over 2.590%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets10% · 10%
- 3 May 2026Lyon4–2Rennes
- 14 Sep 2025Rennes3–1Lyon
- 26 Apr 2025Lyon4–1Rennes
- 18 Aug 2024Rennes3–0Lyon
- 26 Jan 2024Lyon2–3Rennes
- 12 Nov 2023Rennes0–1Lyon
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 75% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Lyon | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.20 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 7.67 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 13.34 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.25 | 2.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Lyon | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.33 | 6.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 12.66 | 12.00 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mathieu Vernice France · 63 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.05league 2.89
Red cards0.37league 0.11
Cards 5+46%league 18%
Fouls26.5league 23.4
Penalties0.38league 0.32
Home wins43%league 32%
Lyon6 with this referee
Record4-0-2
Cards · opp.3.2 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds4
- W7 Feb 26A · Nantes1–03
- L7 Dec 25A · Lorient0–12
- W28 Sep 25A · Lille1–04
- W14 Apr 24H · Stade Brestois 294–35
- W9 Mar 24A · Lorient2–00
Rennes10 with this referee
Record3-3-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 3
- W11 Apr 26H · Angers2–10
- D20 Sep 25A · Nantes2–21
- L8 Mar 25H · Paris Saint Germain1–42
- W8 Feb 25A · Saint Etienne2–05
- L24 Nov 24A · Lille0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon4 games · scored 6 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Rennes4 games · scored 8 · conceded 5
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
2
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
5
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
