Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Tue, Aug 11 · 20:00
Groupama Stadium, Décines-Charpieu
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel852 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Lyon—%
Draw—%
Sparta Praha—%
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
Warm
30°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 17 km/h
- Humidity 45%
RefereeSzymon Marciniak
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 78
Team strength
Lyon
Sparta Praha
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
60
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
55
AttackIn forecast
33
56
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSparta Praha
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonSparta Praha
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
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—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.00
ShotsContext
11.22
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
36%
On target shareContext
34%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.13
66%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.38
12.50
Shots allowedContext
9.44
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.38
3.88
BlocksContext
3.43
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
73%
Save rateContext
82%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
418
PassesContext
469
352
Accurate passesContext
393
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.50
FoulsContext
11.33
14.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.56
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,704 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Sparta Praha
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel852 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
Sparta Praha |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 4 Aug | 7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 4 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 852 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,704 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 35.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
21R. Kluivert
98A. Maitland-Niles
23T. Morton
6F. Tessmann
11M. Fofana
8C. Tolisso
7E. Nuamah
17I. Openda
Sparta Praha
Confirmed XI
44J. Surovčík(G)
11M. Ryneš
25A. Sørensen
19A. Ševínský
2M. Suchomel
18A. Irving
28R. Macek
7J. Alcócer
10A. Karabec
17J. Mercado
14J. Braut Brunes
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sparta Praha
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
No home games yet this season.
Sparta Praha · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Lyon wins0 draws1 Sparta Praha wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 4 Aug 2026Sparta Praha2–1Lyon
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | Sparta Praha | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Lyon | Sparta Praha | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | Sparta Praha | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 9.00 | |
| Match total | 15.00 | 15.00 | 10.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 2.00 | 4.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Lyon | Sparta Praha | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.44 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 13.22 | 10.00 | 10.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.10 | 4.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Szymon Marciniak 78 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.08league 4.28
Red cards0.12league 0.25
Cards 5+44%league 43%
Fouls23.8league 24.9
Penalties0.35league 0.31
Home wins54%league 52%
LyonNo previous matches with this referee.
Sparta PrahaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon1 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Sparta Praha1 games · scored 2 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
5
61-75
4
76-90
Sparta Praha10 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.