Mallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 45). Mallorca had 6.1 days of rest, Athletic Club 14 and had to travel 620 km.
Away travel620 kmRest days6.1 · 14Matches / 14d2 · 1
Mallorca34%
Draw28%
Athletic Club38%
Mallorca34%
Draw27%
Athletic Club38%
Mallorca34%
Draw29%
Athletic Club38%
Mallorca28%
Draw27%
Athletic Club45%
Mallorca35%
Draw27%
Athletic Club38%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Palma de Mallorca)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Luis Guzman Mansilla
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 9
Team strength
Mallorca
Athletic Club
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
50
AttackIn forecast
51
59
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAthletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MallorcaAthletic Club
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.89
1.47
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.32
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.38
79%
Scored inContext
58%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
9.79
ShotsContext
13.05
3.74
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.16
38%
On target shareContext
32%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.06
61%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.36
OffsidesContext
1.91
13.63
Shots allowedContext
9.42
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
4.11
BlocksContext
2.63
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
72%
Save rateContext
71%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
366
PassesContext
414
291
Accurate passesContext
338
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.95
FoulsContext
12.05
12.53
Fouls sufferedContext
11.79
2.26
Yellow cardsContext
1.84
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.16
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.69
80%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.90
ShotsContext
13.40
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
34%
On target shareContext
30%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
61%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
5%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.83
13.00
Shots allowedContext
10.40
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.40
BlocksContext
2.67
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
69%
Save rateContext
73%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
372
PassesContext
375
295
Accurate passesContext
297
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.30
FoulsContext
14.10
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Mallorca
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,098 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Athletic Club
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel620 km231 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Mallorca |
Athletic Club |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 11 Jan | 14La Liga 2025-2026, 3 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 620 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,098 km | 231 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
3Toni Lato
4M. Kumbulla
24M. Valjent
2Mateu Morey
10Darder
5Omar Mascarell
12Samú Costa
17J. Virgili
18Mateo Joseph
7V. Muriqi
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
4Aitor Paredes
3Dani Vivian
12Jesús Areso
18Mikel Jauregizar
16Ruíz de Galarreta
10Nico Williams
20Unai Gómez
7Álex Berenguer
11Gorka Guruzeta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Mallorca
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Athletic Club
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Mallorca+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Athletic Club+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Mallorca · Home
1.44points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-2
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 1.22
Athletic Club · Away
0.89points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-5
- Scored
- 0.78
- Conceded
- 1.56
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Mallorca | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Girona | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Elche | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Oviedo | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Osasuna | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Getafe | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Real Betis | L 0–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Levante | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Sevilla | W 3–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 0–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Espanyol | L 2–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 H | L 0–4 A |
| Points | 18 of 54 · 1.00 per game | 21 of 54 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 Mallorca wins5 draws3 Athletic Club wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets33% · 56%
- 4 Oct 2025Athletic Club2–1Mallorca
- 9 Mar 2025Athletic Club1–1Mallorca
- 28 Oct 2024Mallorca0–0Athletic Club
- 2 Feb 2024Athletic Club4–0Mallorca
- 3 Sep 2023Mallorca0–0Athletic Club
- 1 May 2023Mallorca1–1Athletic Club
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Mallorca | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 0.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.47 | 1.32 | |
| Match goals | 2.58 | 2.21 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 37% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 16% | |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 37% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 42% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Mallorca | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Mallorca | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 5.47 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.58 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 14/18 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 8/18 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 8/18 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.42 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.05 | |
| Match total | 4.42 | 4.05 | 4.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 11/19 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 7/19 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Mallorca | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.89 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 9.30 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.90 | 4.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla Spain · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.22league 4.15
Red cards0.11league 0.27
Cards 5+44%league 46%
Fouls24.3league 24.6
Penalties0.00league 0.35
Home wins33%league 46%
Mallorca2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L22 Nov 25A · Villarreal1–21
- D23 Aug 25H · Celta Vigo1–13
Athletic Club1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D19 Oct 25A · Elche0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Mallorca19 games · scored 21 · conceded 28
3
5
0-15
3
6
16-30
2
7
31-45
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
8
7
76-90
Athletic Club18 games · scored 17 · conceded 23
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
5
5
31-45
2
6
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
3
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Athletic Club9 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
