Mallorca vs Celta Vigo – 23 Aug 2025

La Liga Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 23 · 16:00 Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Palma de Mallorca

Mallorca 20th · 0 pts · 1 played L

1–1Full time

Celta Vigo 18th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 46). Absences weigh more on Mallorca. Mallorca had 6.9 days of rest, Celta Vigo 6 and had to travel 1,000 km.

Away travel1,000 kmRest days6.9 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1

Mallorca36%

Draw28%

Celta Vigo35%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.24

Mallorca39%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo34%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.28

Mallorca38%

Draw28%

Celta Vigo34%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.21

Mallorca30%

Draw28%

Celta Vigo42%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.39

Mallorca38%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo35%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.30

Over 2.5 46% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Palma de Mallorca)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJose Luis Guzman Mansilla

Team strength

Mallorca

Celta Vigo

46 L90 StrengthIn forecast 54

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 54

50 AttackIn forecast 36

59 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Mallorca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Mallorca

Celta Vigo

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

0.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.49

1.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

+0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

50% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

7.40 ShotsContext 13.40

1.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

23% On target shareContext 43%

5.38 Shots in the boxContext 8.67

70% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 13%

1.80 OffsidesContext 1.71

20.60 Shots allowedContext 10.50

6.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

6.00 BlocksContext 2.56

5.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63

82% Save rateContext 62%

44% PossessionIn forecast 54%

367 PassesContext 487

291 Accurate passesContext 418

79% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.95

12.50 FoulsContext 12.00

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Mallorca

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Celta Vigo

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,000 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Mallorca	Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 16 Aug	6La Liga 2025-2026, 17 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,000 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7.2	4.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Mallorca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Leo Román(G)

22J. Mojica 21Raíllo 24M. Valjent 2Mateu Morey

5Omar Mascarell 6Antonio Sánchez

10Darder 20Pablo Torre 11T. Asano

18Mateo Joseph

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

13I. Radu(G)

20Marcos Alonso 24Carlos Domínguez 12Manu Fernández

5Sergio Carreira 6I. Moriba 22Hugo Sotelo 17Javi Rueda

9Ferran Jutglà 10Iago Aspas

18Pablo Durán

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Mallorca Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Celta Vigo Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Mallorca-1.6 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Celta Vigo+1.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Mallorca · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 3.00

Celta Vigo · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Mallorca wins2 draws3 Celta Vigo wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.13 Over 2.525% Both scored38% Clean sheets50% · 25%

5 Apr 2025Mallorca1–2Celta Vigo
6 Dec 2024Celta Vigo2–0Mallorca
13 Jan 2024Mallorca1–1Celta Vigo
16 Sep 2023Celta Vigo0–1Mallorca
17 Apr 2023Celta Vigo0–1Mallorca
20 Jan 2023Mallorca1–0Celta Vigo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Mallorca	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	0.00
Conceded per game	3.00	2.00
Match goals	3.00	2.00	2.50
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	46%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	100%
Games	1	1

	Mallorca	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	0.00
Conceded per game	3.00	2.00
Match goals	3.00	2.00	2.50
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	46%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	100%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Mallorca	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	7.00
Corners conceded	6.00	3.00
Match total	9.00	10.00	8.80
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	6.00	3.00
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	7.00	5.00	3.70
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Mallorca	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	5.30
Corners conceded	7.00	4.70
Match total	10.00	10.00	8.80
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.70
Opponent cards	1.00	2.50
Match total	3.50	4.20	3.70
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.