Mallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Mallorca were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Mallorca had 6.9 days of rest, Getafe 8.9 and had to travel 550 km.
Away travel550 kmRest days6.9 · 8.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Mallorca41%
Draw28%
Getafe30%
Mallorca42%
Draw27%
Getafe31%
Mallorca41%
Draw29%
Getafe30%
Mallorca34%
Draw29%
Getafe37%
Mallorca42%
Draw27%
Getafe32%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Palma de Mallorca)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 36
Team strength
Mallorca
Getafe
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
50
AttackIn forecast
27
59
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGetafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MallorcaGetafe
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.09
1.64
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.18
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
0.76
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
73%
Scored inContext
73%
9%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
11.00
ShotsContext
8.27
3.82
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.90
35%
On target shareContext
32%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
4.56
60%
Box shareContext
48%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.83
OffsidesContext
3.00
14.00
Shots allowedContext
10.27
4.91
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.91
3.73
BlocksContext
2.30
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.09
73%
Save rateContext
79%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
387
PassesContext
277
315
Accurate passesContext
192
82%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.91
FoulsContext
13.73
12.09
Fouls sufferedContext
15.09
2.27
Yellow cardsContext
2.73
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
0.68
1.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.70
ShotsContext
8.10
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.89
35%
On target shareContext
32%
7.11
Shots in the boxContext
4.38
58%
Box shareContext
47%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.10
Shots allowedContext
10.40
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.40
BlocksContext
2.22
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
73%
Save rateContext
75%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
403
PassesContext
280
331
Accurate passesContext
193
82%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.64
11.20
FoulsContext
13.60
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
15.20
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Mallorca
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,577 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Getafe
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel550 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Mallorca |
Getafe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 8.9La Liga 2025-2026, 31 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 550 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,577 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.1 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
13L. Bergström(G)
22J. Mojica
21Raíllo
24M. Valjent
23Pablo Maffeo
12Samú Costa
5Omar Mascarell
17J. Virgili
18Mateo Joseph
10Darder
7V. Muriqi
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
16Diego Rico
22Domingos Duarte
3A. Abqar
21Juan Iglesias
18Alex Sancris
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
6Mario Martín
9Borja Mayoral
23Adrian Liso
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Mallorca
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Getafe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Mallorca+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Getafe+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Mallorca · Home
1.20points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-1
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 1.20
Getafe · Away
1.50points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Mallorca | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Levante | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Sevilla | W 3–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 H | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 8 of 21 · 1.14 per game | 11 of 21 · 1.57 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Mallorca wins2 draws3 Getafe wins
Goals per game0.88 – 0.88
Over 2.538%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets38% · 50%
- 18 May 2025Mallorca1–2Getafe
- 21 Dec 2024Getafe0–1Mallorca
- 26 May 2024Getafe1–2Mallorca
- 28 Oct 2023Mallorca0–0Getafe
- 23 Apr 2023Mallorca3–1Getafe
- 30 Dec 2022Getafe2–0Mallorca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Mallorca | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.64 | 1.18 | |
| Match goals | 2.64 | 2.27 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 45% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 45% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 27% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Mallorca | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.30 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Mallorca | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.73 | 4.18 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.73 | 8.18 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 82% 9/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 4/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 4/11 | 18% 2/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.55 | 2.91 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.09 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 4.64 | 5.18 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 7/11 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 5/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Mallorca | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 8.00 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 5.20 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.61league 3.99
Red cards0.22league 0.25
Cards 5+33%league 43%
Fouls22.1league 24.5
Penalties0.22league 0.35
Home wins50%league 49%
Mallorca3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D24 May 25A · Rayo Vallecano0–02
- D19 May 24H · Almeria2–22
- W16 Mar 24H · Granada CF1–02
Getafe5 with this referee
Record1-0-4
Cards · opp.3.6 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- L21 Sep 25A · Barcelona0–35
- L18 Apr 25A · Espanyol0–13
- L12 May 24A · Cadiz0–12
- L1 Feb 24H · Real Madrid0–21
- W6 Nov 23H · Cadiz1–07
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Mallorca11 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Getafe11 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
