Mallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 48). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Mallorca. Mallorca had 8.2 days of rest, Real Betis 7.1 and had to travel 789 km.
Away travel789 kmRest days8.2 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Mallorca35%
Draw29%
Real Betis36%
Mallorca30%
Draw27%
Real Betis44%
Mallorca33%
Draw29%
Real Betis38%
Mallorca28%
Draw29%
Real Betis43%
Mallorca36%
Draw28%
Real Betis36%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Palma de Mallorca)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 34
Team strength
Mallorca
Real Betis
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
72
50
AttackIn forecast
79
59
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MallorcaReal Betis
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.61
1.61
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
74%
Scored inContext
91%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
9.78
ShotsContext
14.48
3.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.87
40%
On target shareContext
34%
6.27
Shots in the boxContext
8.61
64%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.11
14.43
Shots allowedContext
12.26
4.95
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.26
4.57
BlocksContext
3.14
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.27
72%
Save rateContext
75%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
359
PassesContext
456
283
Accurate passesContext
385
79%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.78
FoulsContext
10.35
11.87
Fouls sufferedContext
12.83
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.00
ShotsContext
14.30
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
46%
On target shareContext
34%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
67%
Box shareContext
49%
17%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.25
15.00
Shots allowedContext
13.80
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
5.50
BlocksContext
3.80
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
72%
Save rateContext
78%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
338
PassesContext
439
261
Accurate passesContext
368
77%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.60
FoulsContext
10.40
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Mallorca
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km413 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Betis
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel789 km781 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Mallorca |
Real Betis |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.2La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 789 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 413 km | 781 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
22J. Mojica
24M. Valjent
27David López
23Pablo Maffeo
12Samú Costa
5Omar Mascarell
17J. Virgili
10Darder
18Mateo Joseph
7V. Muriqi
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
12R. Rodríguez
4Natan
3Diego Llorente
24Aitor Ruibal
15Álvaro Fidalgo
21Marc Roca
8Pablo Fornals
10A. Ezzalzouli
11C. Bakambu
7Antony
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Mallorca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Betis
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Mallorca+1.7 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Real Betis-2.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Mallorca · Home
1.73points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-2
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 1.27
Real Betis · Away
1.33points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-7-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Mallorca | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H | L 3–5 H |
| Sevilla | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Athletic Club | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Girona | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Elche | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Oviedo | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Osasuna | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Getafe | W 1–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Levante | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Espanyol | L 2–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 A | L 1–5 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 24 of 66 · 1.09 per game | 35 of 66 · 1.59 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 Mallorca wins1 draws7 Real Betis wins
Goals per game0.56 – 1.56
Over 2.544%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets0% · 56%
- 2 Nov 2025Real Betis3–0Mallorca
- 25 Jan 2025Mallorca0–1Real Betis
- 23 Sep 2024Real Betis1–2Mallorca
- 27 Jan 2024Mallorca0–1Real Betis
- 4 Nov 2023Real Betis2–0Mallorca
- 19 Mar 2023Real Betis1–0Mallorca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Mallorca | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.61 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.61 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 2.83 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 48% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 61% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 9% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Mallorca | Real Betis | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.60 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Mallorca | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.32 | 4.36 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.09 | 5.36 | |
| Match total | 10.41 | 9.72 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 82% 18/22 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 12/22 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 11/22 | 27% 6/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 1.74 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 2.52 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.26 | 4.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 12/23 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 8/23 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Mallorca | Real Betis | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.10 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.60 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 8.80 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.90 | 4.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.62league 4.15
Red cards0.32league 0.28
Cards 5+62%league 45%
Fouls26.8league 24.6
Penalties0.29league 0.37
Home wins32%league 47%
Mallorca1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D28 Apr 24A · Cadiz1–12
Real Betis2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.0.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L31 Aug 25H · Athletic Club1–20
- D25 May 24A · Real Madrid0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Mallorca23 games · scored 28 · conceded 37
4
6
0-15
4
8
16-30
3
9
31-45
1
2
46-60
7
3
61-75
9
9
76-90
Real Betis23 games · scored 37 · conceded 28
3
8
0-15
6
3
16-30
5
4
31-45
7
6
46-60
7
2
61-75
9
5
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
3
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
