Manchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Manchester City were clear favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Manchester City. Manchester City had 7.8 days of rest, Coventry 7 and had to travel 129 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel129 kmRest days7.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Manchester City82%
Draw12%
Coventry7%
Manchester City76%
Draw15%
Coventry9%
Manchester City82%
Draw12%
Coventry7%
Manchester City76%
Draw15%
Coventry9%
Manchester City80%
Draw13%
Coventry7%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
18°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 16 km/h
- Humidity 55%
RefereePaul Tierney
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 127
Team strength
Manchester City
Coventry
90
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
91
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
92
AttackIn forecast
47
82
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCoventry
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester CityCoventry
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
2.23
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
0.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.77
Goals minus xGContext
-0.75
100%
Scored inContext
0%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.50
ShotsContext
7.50
7.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.00
48%
On target shareContext
27%
12.00
Shots in the boxContext
4.00
78%
Box shareContext
44%
19%
ConversionContext
0%
—
OffsidesContext
—
7.00
Shots allowedContext
13.00
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
—
BlocksContext
—
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
80%
Save rateContext
38%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
723
PassesContext
466
658
Accurate passesContext
386
91%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.19
Team ratingContext
6.64
11.00
FoulsContext
12.00
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
2.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
100%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
18.30
ShotsContext
12.40
6.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
34%
On target shareContext
32%
12.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
71%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.71
9.00
Shots allowedContext
10.20
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.11
3.00
BlocksContext
3.67
2.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.78
72%
Save rateContext
57%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
617
PassesContext
478
550
Accurate passesContext
401
89%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.11
Team ratingContext
6.97
9.20
FoulsContext
9.90
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester City
WW
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 81 · 6 pts vs 1.9 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester City |
Coventry |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Premier League 2026-2027, 28 Aug | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 129 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 524 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
1G. Donnarumma(G)
24J. Gvardiol
6A. Guéhi
3Rúben Dias
45A. Khusanov
5E. Anderson
17E. Fernández
7I. Ndiaye
10M. Cherki
42A. Semenyo
9E. Haaland
Coventry
Confirmed XI
19C. Rushworth(G)
2E. Pinnock
4B. Thomas
24A. Amenda
3J. Dasilva
6M. Grimes
16O. Onyeka
27M. van Ewijk
10E. Mason-Clark
5J. Rudoni
14T. Awoniyi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester City
Absences are shown before kick-off
Coventry
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester City+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Coventry+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester City · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Coventry · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester City | Coventry | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.00 | 3.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Manchester City | Coventry | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.00 | 3.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 0% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 10 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester City | Coventry | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.00 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Manchester City | Coventry | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.80 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 2.78 | |
| Match total | 12.70 | 7.22 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 90% 9/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Paul Tierney 127 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.76league 3.82
Red cards0.12league 0.05
Cards 5+40%league 32%
Fouls22.0league 23.2
Penalties0.17league 0.18
Home wins39%league 45%
Manchester City14 with this referee
Record12-2-0
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W11 Feb 26H · Fulham3–03
- W20 Dec 25H · West Ham3–01
- W6 Apr 24A · Crystal Palace4–21
- D16 Dec 23H · Crystal Palace2–21
- W29 Oct 23A · Manchester United3–01
Coventry1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L6 Dec 25A · Ipswich0–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester City2 games · scored 6 · conceded 2
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
3
76-90
Coventry2 games · scored 0 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 23 · conceded 9
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
8
1
76-90
Coventry10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
