Marseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Marseille were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Marseille had 7 days of rest, Lens 7.2 and had to travel 817 km.
Away travel817 kmRest days7 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Marseille45%
Draw26%
Lens30%
Marseille44%
Draw27%
Lens30%
Marseille45%
Draw26%
Lens29%
Marseille37%
Draw26%
Lens37%
Marseille44%
Draw26%
Lens30%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Marseille)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 114
Team strength
Marseille
Lens
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
48
AttackIn forecast
63
46
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MarseilleLens
2.28
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.78
1.06
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.72
1.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
78%
Scored inContext
78%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
39%
14.11
ShotsContext
13.89
5.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.22
41%
On target shareContext
38%
8.83
Shots in the boxContext
10.11
64%
Box shareContext
72%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
1.54
OffsidesContext
2.69
9.50
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.59
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
3.18
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.76
74%
Save rateContext
77%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
579
PassesContext
444
520
Accurate passesContext
375
90%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.02
Team ratingContext
7.05
11.67
FoulsContext
13.39
9.94
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.94
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.22
Red cardsContext
0.11
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.10
ShotsContext
14.30
6.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
42%
On target shareContext
42%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
62%
Box shareContext
71%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.50
10.70
Shots allowedContext
10.10
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.63
BlocksContext
3.11
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
68%
Save rateContext
79%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
570
PassesContext
486
508
Accurate passesContext
418
89%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.01
Team ratingContext
7.07
11.00
FoulsContext
13.90
10.56
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Marseille
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,311 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lens
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel817 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Marseille |
Lens |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 7.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 817 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,311 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
32F. Medina
21N. Aguerd
5L. Balerdi
14Igor Paixão
27Q. Timber
23P. Højbjerg
22T. Weah
20H. Traorè
11E. Nwaneri
9A. Gouiri
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
14M. Udol
20M. Sarr
25P. Ganiou
2R. Aguilar
28A. Thomasson
8M. Sangaré
23S. Abdulhamid
22W. Saïd
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Marseille
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lens
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Marseille-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Lens+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Marseille · Home
2.22points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-1
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 1.11
Lens · Away
2.11points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Marseille | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Angers | W 5–2 AD 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Nantes | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Monaco | W 1–0 H | W 4–1 A |
| Lille | L 0–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Toulouse | D 2–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Nice | W 5–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| LE Havre | W 6–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Metz | W 3–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Lorient | W 4–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Lyon | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Paris FC | W 5–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Rennes | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 35 of 51 · 2.06 per game | 40 of 51 · 2.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Marseille wins0 draws6 Lens wins
Goals per game1.22 – 1.33
Over 2.556%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets11% · 33%
- 25 Oct 2025Lens2–1Marseille
- 8 Mar 2025Marseille0–1Lens
- 23 Nov 2024Lens1–3Marseille
- 28 Apr 2024Marseille2–1Lens
- 12 Nov 2023Lens1–0Marseille
- 6 May 2023Lens2–1Marseille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Marseille | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.28 | 1.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.06 | 0.72 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.50 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 61% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 44% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 39% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 22% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Marseille | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.60 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Marseille | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.12 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.82 | 4.18 | |
| Match total | 8.82 | 10.30 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 41% 7/17 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 6/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 4/17 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.22 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.56 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.78 | 4.50 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 10/18 | 72% 13/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 7/18 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Marseille | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 9.00 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.90 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 114 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.20league 3.61
Red cards0.22league 0.33
Cards 5+47%league 35%
Fouls24.5league 24.2
Penalties0.42league 0.44
Home wins52%league 50%
Marseille14 with this referee
Record4-2-8
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.7
Pens for · against2 · 4
Reds2
- W1 Nov 25A · Auxerre1–05
- L12 Apr 25A · Monaco0–31
- W22 Sep 24A · Lyon3–23
- W17 Aug 24A · Stade Brestois 295–11
- L31 Mar 24H · Paris Saint Germain0–20
Lens11 with this referee
Record7-2-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against3 · 3
- W6 Dec 25A · Nantes2–10
- L26 Oct 24H · Lille0–24
- W20 Apr 24H · Clermont Foot1–01
- L16 Mar 24H · Nice1–34
- W12 Nov 23H · Marseille1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Marseille18 games · scored 41 · conceded 19
3
2
0-15
8
4
16-30
6
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
8
1
61-75
12
7
76-90
Lens18 games · scored 32 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
6
4
31-45
6
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
8
3
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 21 · conceded 14
2
4
0-15
3
16-30
5
3
31-45
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 20 · conceded 6
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
46-60
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
