Marseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Marseille were clear favourites.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Metz. Marseille had 5 days of rest, Metz 5.2 and had to travel 649 km.
Away travel649 kmRest days5 · 5.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Marseille69%
Draw19%
Metz12%
Marseille74%
Draw17%
Metz9%
Marseille69%
Draw19%
Metz12%
Marseille62%
Draw22%
Metz16%
Marseille68%
Draw20%
Metz12%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Marseille)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceStephanie Frappart
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 84
Team strength
Marseille
Metz
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
48
AttackIn forecast
11
46
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMetz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MarseilleMetz
1.96
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.89
1.32
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.14
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
79%
Scored inContext
54%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
14.04
ShotsContext
9.46
5.36
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.61
38%
On target shareContext
31%
8.71
Shots in the boxContext
6.32
63%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.86
10.07
Shots allowedContext
14.61
4.04
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
2.68
BlocksContext
3.52
2.85
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.81
69%
Save rateContext
65%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
544
PassesContext
445
482
Accurate passesContext
383
89%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.21
FoulsContext
11.29
10.46
Fouls sufferedContext
11.07
2.21
Yellow cardsContext
1.61
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
70%
Scored inContext
30%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.40
ShotsContext
11.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.29
35%
On target shareContext
27%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.11
60%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
6%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.38
11.50
Shots allowedContext
15.00
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.20
BlocksContext
4.40
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.88
57%
Save rateContext
63%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
478
PassesContext
428
411
Accurate passesContext
364
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.30
FoulsContext
12.60
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Marseille
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km343 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Metz
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel649 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Marseille |
Metz |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Apr | 5.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 649 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 343 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 8.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
32F. Medina
5L. Balerdi
28B. Pavard
14Igor Paixão
27Q. Timber
23P. Højbjerg
22T. Weah
9A. Gouiri
10M. Greenwood
17P. Aubameyang
Metz
Confirmed XI
61P. Sy(G)
2M. Colin
5J. Gbamin
38S. Sané
39K. Kouao
12Alpha Touré
20J. Deminguet
7G. Tsitaishvili
10G. Hein
70B. Sarr
30M. Diallo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Marseille
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Metz
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Marseille+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Metz+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Marseille · Home
2.14points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-3-2
- Scored
- 2.43
- Conceded
- 1.21
Metz · Away
0.36points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-11
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 2.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Marseille | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Monaco | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | L 2–5 A |
| Lille | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 HL 1–6 A |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H | L 3–4 HL 0–4 A |
| Lyon | W 3–2 HL 0–1 A | L 2–5 HL 0–3 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Strasbourg | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–5 AW 1–0 H | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H |
| Paris FC | D 2–2 AW 5–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Lens | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Angers | W 5–2 AD 2–2 H | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Nantes | L 0–2 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Nice | W 5–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| LE Havre | W 6–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Lorient | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Rennes | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 46 of 81 · 1.70 per game | 15 of 81 · 0.56 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Marseille wins3 draws0 Metz wins
Goals per game1.60 – 0.80
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 4 Oct 2025Metz0–3Marseille
- 9 Feb 2024Marseille1–1Metz
- 18 Aug 2023Metz2–2Marseille
- 13 Feb 2022Metz1–2Marseille
- 7 Nov 2021Marseille0–0Metz
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Marseille | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.96 | 0.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.32 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 3.04 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 57% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 46% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 46% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Marseille | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 70% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Marseille | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.73 | 4.07 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.65 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 8.38 | 8.96 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 11/26 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 27% 7/26 | 22% 6/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 19% 5/26 | 15% 4/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.39 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.18 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 19/28 | 46% 13/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 13/28 | 21% 6/28 | |
| Marseille | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 8.56 | 8.60 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.20 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stephanie Frappart France · 84 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.63league 3.68
Red cards0.23league 0.27
Cards 5+31%league 36%
Fouls24.5league 23.7
Penalties0.25league 0.37
Home wins51%league 48%
Marseille10 with this referee
Record7-1-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L25 Oct 25A · Lens1–22
- W27 Apr 25H · Stade Brestois 294–11
- W2 Mar 25H · Nantes2–01
- W31 Aug 24A · Toulouse3–12
- D4 Nov 23H · Lille0–02
Metz7 with this referee
Record2-1-4
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 1
- W9 Nov 25H · Nice2–12
- L21 Sep 25A · Monaco2–50
- L28 Apr 24H · Lille1–21
- L27 Jan 24A · Nice0–11
- W16 Sep 23A · Lens1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Marseille28 games · scored 55 · conceded 37
6
5
0-15
10
5
16-30
7
3
31-45
7
5
46-60
9
6
61-75
16
13
76-90
Metz28 games · scored 25 · conceded 60
3
9
0-15
4
7
16-30
4
13
31-45
2
7
46-60
2
6
61-75
10
18
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 11 · conceded 20
1
5
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
61-75
4
6
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 6 · conceded 20
5
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
