Marseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Marseille
17th · 3 pts · 4 played
WLLL
1–2Full time
Paris Saint Germain
10th · 5 pts · 4 played
DDLW
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Marseille. Marseille had 3 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 7 and had to travel 661 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel661 kmRest days3 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Marseille18%
Draw19%
Paris Saint Germain63%
Marseille18%
Draw22%
Paris Saint Germain61%
Marseille18%
Draw19%
Paris Saint Germain63%
Marseille13%
Draw16%
Paris Saint Germain70%
Marseille19%
Draw20%
Paris Saint Germain61%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Marseille)
23°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 4 km/h
- Humidity 63%
Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 136
Team strength
MarseilleParis Saint Germain
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
87
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
48
AttackIn forecast
91
46
DefenceIn forecast
83
20
Form indexContext
57
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MarseilleParis Saint Germain
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
0.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
50%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.50
ShotsContext
18.25
5.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.25
39%
On target shareContext
34%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.25
63%
Box shareContext
46%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
1.33
OffsidesContext
4.33
13.50
Shots allowedContext
9.25
5.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
4.00
BlocksContext
2.00
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
71%
Save rateContext
89%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
68%
625
PassesContext
736
563
Accurate passesContext
665
90%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.01
9.75
FoulsContext
7.00
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.25
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
-0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
60%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.30
ShotsContext
18.50
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.10
35%
On target shareContext
33%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
63%
Box shareContext
55%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
3.29
13.70
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.44
BlocksContext
3.25
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.71
65%
Save rateContext
85%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
528
PassesContext
690
462
Accurate passesContext
617
88%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.77
Team ratingContext
7.09
11.70
FoulsContext
7.50
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Marseille
WLLLL
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km5,436 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Form 20 · 3 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · -4.2 vs expected
Paris Saint Germain
DDLWW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel661 km1,010 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 57 · 8 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Marseille |
Paris Saint Germain |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 33 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 17 Sep | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 661 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 5,436 km | 1,010 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 20 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1J. de Lange(G)
33Emerson
21N. Aguerd
4C. Egan-Riley
22T. Weah
14Igor Paixão
8H. Abdelli
23P. Højbjerg
77A. Harit
9A. Gouiri
11N. Maupay
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
39M. Safonov(G)
25Nuno Mendes
51W. Pacho
5Marquinhos
33W. Zaïre-Emery
8Fabián Ruiz
17Vitinha
87João Neves
7K. Kvaratskhelia
10M. Dembélé
14D. Doué
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Marseille
Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris Saint Germain
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Marseille+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Paris Saint Germain-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Marseille · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Paris Saint Germain · Away
1.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Marseille | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Rennes | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Monaco | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
1 Marseille wins1 draws8 Paris Saint Germain wins
Goals per game0.30 – 2.30
Over 2.560%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets20% · 70%
- 8 Feb 2026Paris Saint Germain5–0Marseille
- 22 Sep 2025Marseille1–0Paris Saint Germain
- 16 Mar 2025Paris Saint Germain3–1Marseille
- 27 Oct 2024Marseille0–3Paris Saint Germain
- 31 Mar 2024Marseille0–2Paris Saint Germain
- 24 Sep 2023Paris Saint Germain4–0Marseille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Marseille | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 75% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Marseille | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.20 | 3.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Marseille | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.75 | 5.00 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.75 | 3.00 | 3.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Marseille | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 6.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 2.86 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 9.00 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.60 | 3.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · François Letexier France · 136 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.96league 3.11
Red cards0.24league 0.09
Cards 5+43%league 23%
Fouls22.2league 24.2
Penalties0.34league 0.30
Home wins51%league 41%
Marseille13 with this referee
Record6-4-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.6
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds3
- D14 Feb 26H · Strasbourg2–24
- W14 Dec 25H · Monaco1–02
- L31 Aug 25A · Lyon0–13
- L27 Oct 24H · Paris Saint Germain0–32
- W10 Mar 24H · Nantes2–02
Paris Saint Germain14 with this referee
Record11-2-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W1 Nov 25H · Nice1–03
- W1 Mar 25H · Lille4–10
- W18 Dec 24A · Monaco4–20
- W27 Oct 24A · Marseille3–00
- W21 Apr 24H · Lyon4–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Marseille4 games · scored 6 · conceded 6
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Paris Saint Germain4 games · scored 6 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
31-45
4
8
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
