Marseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Marseille were slight favourites.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Strasbourg. Marseille had 5.8 days of rest, Strasbourg 6 and had to travel 616 km.
Away travel616 kmRest days5.8 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Marseille46%
Draw25%
Strasbourg30%
Marseille49%
Draw26%
Strasbourg25%
Marseille44%
Draw25%
Strasbourg30%
Marseille38%
Draw25%
Strasbourg37%
Marseille45%
Draw25%
Strasbourg30%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Marseille)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 118
Team strength
Marseille
Strasbourg
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
48
AttackIn forecast
40
46
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStrasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MarseilleStrasbourg
2.19
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.62
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
76%
Scored inContext
86%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
13.81
ShotsContext
10.62
5.48
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.35
40%
On target shareContext
39%
8.71
Shots in the boxContext
7.55
63%
Box shareContext
69%
16%
ConversionContext
15%
1.44
OffsidesContext
1.84
9.90
Shots allowedContext
11.24
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
2.94
BlocksContext
3.38
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.95
71%
Save rateContext
69%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
563
PassesContext
501
504
Accurate passesContext
441
89%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.38
FoulsContext
11.33
10.29
Fouls sufferedContext
12.67
1.95
Yellow cardsContext
1.81
0.19
Red cardsContext
0.19
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
50%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.30
ShotsContext
11.20
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.22
40%
On target shareContext
42%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
56%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.78
10.90
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.11
BlocksContext
3.57
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
56%
Save rateContext
68%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
530
PassesContext
547
465
Accurate passesContext
491
88%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.30
FoulsContext
10.00
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Marseille
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,642 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Strasbourg
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel616 km1,131 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Marseille |
Strasbourg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 616 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,642 km | 1,131 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 8.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
33Emerson
21N. Aguerd
28B. Pavard
22T. Weah
27Q. Timber
23P. Højbjerg
17P. Aubameyang
26B. Nadir
10M. Greenwood
9A. Gouiri
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
3B. Chilwell
2A. Omobamidele
24L. Høgsberg
22G. Doué
29S. El Mourabet
32V. Barco
20B. Godo
19J. Enciso
7Diego Moreira
9J. Panichelli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Marseille
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Strasbourg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Marseille+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Strasbourg-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Marseille · Home
2.30points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-1
- Scored
- 2.70
- Conceded
- 1.10
Strasbourg · Away
1.00points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-6
- Scored
- 1.55
- Conceded
- 1.82
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Marseille | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–5 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 HD 3–3 A |
| Paris FC | D 2–2 AW 5–2 H | W 3–2 A |
| Lens | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Angers | W 5–2 AD 2–2 H | W 5–0 H |
| Nantes | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Monaco | W 1–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| Lille | L 0–1 A | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Toulouse | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Nice | W 5–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| LE Havre | W 6–2 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Metz | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Lorient | W 4–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Lyon | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Rennes | L 0–1 A | L 1–4 A |
| Points | 36 of 60 · 1.80 per game | 30 of 60 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Marseille wins5 draws1 Strasbourg wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.00
Over 2.544%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets22% · 11%
- 26 Sep 2025Strasbourg1–2Marseille
- 19 Jan 2025Marseille1–1Strasbourg
- 29 Sep 2024Strasbourg1–0Marseille
- 12 Jan 2024Marseille1–1Strasbourg
- 25 Nov 2023Strasbourg1–1Marseille
- 12 Mar 2023Marseille2–2Strasbourg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Marseille | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.19 | 1.62 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.48 | 2.90 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 62% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 57% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 14% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Marseille | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 2.30 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Marseille | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.65 | 3.53 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 4.37 | |
| Match total | 8.45 | 7.90 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 35% 7/20 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 6/20 | 26% 5/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 4/20 | 26% 5/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.19 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.62 | 1.81 | |
| Match total | 3.81 | 3.91 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 12/21 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 8/21 | 29% 6/21 | |
| Marseille | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 5.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 10.38 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.60 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · François Letexier France · 118 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.01league 3.65
Red cards0.26league 0.31
Cards 5+45%league 36%
Fouls22.2league 24.2
Penalties0.32league 0.40
Home wins53%league 50%
Marseille12 with this referee
Record6-3-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.7
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds3
- W14 Dec 25H · Monaco1–02
- L31 Aug 25A · Lyon0–13
- L27 Oct 24H · Paris Saint Germain0–32
- W10 Mar 24H · Nantes2–02
- W6 Dec 23H · Lyon3–01
Strasbourg8 with this referee
Record5-1-2
Cards · opp.2.9 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds2
- W9 Nov 25H · Lille2–05
- W21 Sep 25A · Paris FC3–24
- W12 May 24H · Metz2–12
- W18 Feb 23H · Angers2–13
- D11 Jan 23H · Lens2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Marseille21 games · scored 46 · conceded 27
5
3
0-15
9
4
16-30
6
3
31-45
5
3
46-60
9
4
61-75
12
10
76-90
Strasbourg21 games · scored 34 · conceded 27
3
3
0-15
6
4
16-30
5
2
31-45
6
7
46-60
7
1
61-75
7
10
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 14 · conceded 21
3
5
0-15
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
7
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
4
0-15
3
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
