Marseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Marseille were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Marseille. Marseille had 96 days of rest, Strasbourg 96 and had to travel 616 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel616 kmRest days96 · 96Matches / 14d0 · 0
Marseille50%
Draw23%
Strasbourg27%
Marseille46%
Draw25%
Strasbourg29%
Marseille49%
Draw23%
Strasbourg27%
Marseille42%
Draw24%
Strasbourg34%
Marseille49%
Draw24%
Strasbourg27%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Marseille)
Warm
25°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 13 km/h
- Humidity 67%
RefereeRuddy Buquet
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 78
Team strength
Marseille
Strasbourg
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
48
AttackIn forecast
40
46
DefenceIn forecast
37
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStrasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MarseilleStrasbourg
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
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—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
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Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
-0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
16.10
ShotsContext
9.80
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
35%
On target shareContext
40%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.78
62%
Box shareContext
57%
8%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.75
10.90
Shots allowedContext
17.60
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.56
2.70
BlocksContext
4.90
2.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.78
66%
Save rateContext
73%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
472
PassesContext
478
405
Accurate passesContext
412
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.00
FoulsContext
10.30
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Marseille
Rest96 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Strasbourg
Rest96 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel616 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Marseille |
Strasbourg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 96Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 May | 96Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 616 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Marseille
Confirmed XI
12J. de Lange(G)
33Emerson
19G. Kondogbia
4C. Egan-Riley
22T. Weah
23P. Højbjerg
8H. Abdelli
14Igor Paixão
7A. Gomes
77A. Harit
9A. Gouiri
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
1F. Jørgensen(G)
16Genesis Antwi
24L. Høgsberg
2A. Omobamidele
22G. Doué
29S. El Mourabet
23Diogo Sousa
80Gessime Yassine
11A. Nanasi
7S. Amo-Ameyaw
14S. Mara
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Marseille
Absences are shown before kick-off
Strasbourg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Marseille+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Strasbourg+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Marseille · Home
No home games yet this season.
Strasbourg · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
3 Marseille wins6 draws1 Strasbourg wins
Goals per game1.70 – 1.10
Over 2.550%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets20% · 10%
- 14 Feb 2026Marseille2–2Strasbourg
- 26 Sep 2025Strasbourg1–2Marseille
- 19 Jan 2025Marseille1–1Strasbourg
- 29 Sep 2024Strasbourg1–0Marseille
- 12 Jan 2024Marseille1–1Strasbourg
- 25 Nov 2023Strasbourg1–1Marseille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Marseille | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 60% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Marseille | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.40 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Marseille | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Marseille | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.13 | 6.11 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 10.44 | |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.20 | |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ruddy Buquet 78 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.77
Red cards0.37
Cards 5+40%
Fouls23.7
Penalties0.32
Home wins41%
Marseille12 with this referee
Record6-4-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.2
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds3
- W17 May 26H · Rennes3–13
- W17 Jan 26A · Angers5–21
- L18 Feb 24A · Stade Brestois 290–11
- L21 Oct 23A · Nice0–13
- D1 Sep 23A · Nantes1–12
Strasbourg12 with this referee
Record2-4-6
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.2
Pens for · against2 · 0
- L19 Apr 26H · Rennes0–30
- W22 Feb 26H · Lyon3–11
- W29 Oct 25H · Auxerre3–01
- D7 Apr 24A · Toulouse0–00
- L2 Feb 24H · Paris Saint Germain1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
MarseilleStrasbourgMarseille10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
7
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
5
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
