Metz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Auxerre were the stronger side on L90 Strength (22 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Auxerre. Metz had 8.9 days of rest, Auxerre 7 and had to travel 239 km.
Away travel239 kmRest days8.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Metz36%
Draw29%
Auxerre35%
Metz38%
Draw27%
Auxerre35%
Metz36%
Draw29%
Auxerre35%
Metz29%
Draw29%
Auxerre42%
Metz36%
Draw29%
Auxerre36%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Longeville-lès-Metz)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceMarc Bollengier
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 61
Team strength
Metz
Auxerre
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
11
AttackIn forecast
39
17
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAuxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MetzAuxerre
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
2.19
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.35
62%
Scored inContext
43%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
8.57
ShotsContext
10.19
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.37
33%
On target shareContext
30%
5.63
Shots in the boxContext
6.47
60%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.27
14.38
Shots allowedContext
11.10
5.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.52
3.15
BlocksContext
2.88
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
66%
Save rateContext
73%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
441
PassesContext
375
380
Accurate passesContext
305
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.52
FoulsContext
13.10
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.95
1.48
Yellow cardsContext
2.05
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.42
70%
Scored inContext
30%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.60
ShotsContext
10.40
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
31%
On target shareContext
30%
4.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.11
54%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.90
Shots allowedContext
10.40
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.20
BlocksContext
2.75
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
67%
Save rateContext
76%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
444
PassesContext
379
381
Accurate passesContext
310
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.00
FoulsContext
12.60
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Metz
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,054 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Auxerre
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel239 km990 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Metz |
Auxerre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 6 Feb | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 239 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,054 km | 990 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
97F. Ballo-Touré
4Urie-Michel Mboula
38S. Sané
39K. Kouao
20J. Deminguet
33Believe Munongo
7G. Tsitaishvili
10G. Hein
9G. Abuashvili
30M. Diallo
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
92C. Akpa
24B. Okoh
20S. Diomandé
27L. Sy
5K. Danois
42E. Owusu
8N. Ahamada
10L. Sinayoko
9S. Mara
28R. Faivre
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Metz
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Auxerre
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Metz-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Auxerre+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Metz · Home
0.90points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-5
- Scored
- 0.90
- Conceded
- 1.50
Auxerre · Away
0.30points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-7
- Scored
- 0.40
- Conceded
- 1.70
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Metz | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Lille | D 0–0 HL 1–6 A | L 3–4 H |
| Angers | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Lyon | L 2–5 HL 0–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| Strasbourg | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Lorient | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 2–3 H | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Rennes | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 2–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Nice | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Nantes | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lens | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Toulouse | L 0–4 A | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Marseille | L 0–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Monaco | L 2–5 A | L 1–2 H |
| Paris FC | L 2–3 A | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 13 of 60 · 0.65 per game | 11 of 60 · 0.55 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Metz wins0 draws1 Auxerre wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 7 Dec 2025Auxerre3–1Metz
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Metz | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.19 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 3.19 | 2.05 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 52% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 33% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 57% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Metz | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 1.90 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 20% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 70% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Metz | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.85 | 4.76 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.05 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 9.14 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 35% 7/20 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 15% 3/20 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 15% 3/20 | 29% 6/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 2.71 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 5.04 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 9/21 | 71% 15/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 6/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Metz | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.30 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.30 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Bollengier France · 61 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.38league 3.65
Red cards0.30league 0.31
Cards 5+30%league 36%
Fouls26.3league 24.1
Penalties0.33league 0.41
Home wins38%league 49%
Metz3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W21 Apr 24A · LE Havre1–03
- L23 Feb 24H · Lyon1–21
- L17 Dec 23H · Montpellier0–12
Auxerre8 with this referee
Record3-3-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 4
Reds2
- W21 Sep 25H · Toulouse1–02
- D10 May 25H · Nantes1–13
- W30 Mar 25H · Montpellier1–03
- D24 Jan 25H · Saint Etienne1–12
- W8 Nov 24A · Marseille3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Metz21 games · scored 21 · conceded 46
3
5
0-15
3
7
16-30
3
10
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
5
61-75
8
14
76-90
Auxerre21 games · scored 14 · conceded 29
1
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
9
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 11 · conceded 20
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
8
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 7 · conceded 12
1
0-15
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
