Metz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lens were slight favourites.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 14). Metz had 3.2 days of rest, Lens 4 and had to travel 279 km.
Away travel279 kmRest days3.2 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Metz19%
Draw24%
Lens58%
Metz19%
Draw24%
Lens57%
Metz19%
Draw24%
Lens57%
Metz14%
Draw21%
Lens65%
Metz18%
Draw23%
Lens59%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Longeville-lès-Metz)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceAbdelatif Kherradji
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.48
- Matches 21
Team strength
Metz
Lens
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
11
AttackIn forecast
63
17
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MetzLens
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.56
2.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.89
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
2.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
44%
Scored inContext
67%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
7.22
ShotsContext
12.78
2.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
29%
On target shareContext
34%
6.29
Shots in the boxContext
9.56
69%
Box shareContext
74%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.25
OffsidesContext
3.00
15.44
Shots allowedContext
13.56
6.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
3.00
BlocksContext
5.33
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
61%
Save rateContext
73%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
449
PassesContext
384
389
Accurate passesContext
315
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.63
Team ratingContext
7.01
11.00
FoulsContext
12.56
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
12.33
1.11
Yellow cardsContext
2.22
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
2.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.67
2.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
40%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
7.50
ShotsContext
13.00
2.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
28%
On target shareContext
34%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
70%
Box shareContext
73%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
1.25
OffsidesContext
3.00
15.90
Shots allowedContext
12.80
6.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.00
BlocksContext
4.90
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
61%
Save rateContext
74%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
428
PassesContext
389
367
Accurate passesContext
321
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.64
Team ratingContext
7.06
10.50
FoulsContext
12.60
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Metz
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,962 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Lens
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel279 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Metz |
Lens |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 13 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 4Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 279 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,962 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 3.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
2M. Colin
15T. Yegbe
5J. Gbamin
39K. Kouao
12Alpha Touré
7G. Tsitaishvili
20J. Deminguet
10G. Hein
14C. Sabaly
30M. Diallo
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
14M. Udol
6S. Baidoo
24J. Gradit
3D. Machado
28A. Thomasson
8M. Sangaré
23S. Abdulhamid
19A. Sima
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Metz
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lens
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Metz-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Lens+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Metz · Home
0.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 0.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Lens · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Metz | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Lille | L 1–6 A | W 3–0 H |
| Marseille | L 0–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Paris FC | L 2–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Lyon | L 0–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 15 · 0.20 per game | 12 of 15 · 2.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Metz wins1 draws1 Lens wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 12 Apr 2024Metz2–1Lens
- 16 Sep 2023Lens0–1Metz
- 13 Mar 2022Metz0–0Lens
- 24 Oct 2021Lens4–1Metz
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Metz | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.56 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.89 | 0.89 | |
| Match goals | 3.56 | 2.44 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Metz | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.56 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.89 | 0.89 | |
| Match goals | 3.56 | 2.44 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Metz | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 9.56 | 12.13 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 2.78 | |
| Match total | 2.66 | 5.22 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 11% 1/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Metz | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 6.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 11.78 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 5.00 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Abdelatif Kherradji France · 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.86league 3.80
Red cards0.19league 0.30
Cards 5+38%league 37%
Fouls27.6league 24.8
Penalties0.48league 0.53
Home wins48%league 53%
MetzNo previous matches with this referee.
Lens3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W29 Aug 25H · Stade Brestois 293–11
- W26 Jan 25H · Angers1–01
- W29 Nov 24A · Reims2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Metz9 games · scored 6 · conceded 26
2
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
11
76-90
Lens9 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 6 · conceded 28
2
4
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
11
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
