Metz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were clear favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 17). Absences weigh more on Lyon. Metz had 7.1 days of rest, Lyon 2.9 and had to travel 382 km.
Away travel382 kmRest days7.1 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Metz17%
Draw21%
Lyon62%
Metz16%
Draw22%
Lyon61%
Metz16%
Draw21%
Lyon63%
Metz12%
Draw19%
Lyon69%
Metz17%
Draw22%
Lyon61%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Longeville-lès-Metz)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceEric Wattellier
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 89
Team strength
Metz
Lyon
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
60
11
AttackIn forecast
55
17
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MetzLyon
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.22
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
67%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
8.61
ShotsContext
12.44
3.31
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
34%
On target shareContext
37%
5.88
Shots in the boxContext
8.35
61%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.54
OffsidesContext
1.86
14.39
Shots allowedContext
10.17
5.72
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.29
3.00
BlocksContext
4.07
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
66%
Save rateContext
74%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
454
PassesContext
466
393
Accurate passesContext
404
87%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.56
FoulsContext
14.28
11.44
Fouls sufferedContext
13.61
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.94
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.00
ShotsContext
14.20
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
38%
On target shareContext
39%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
59%
Box shareContext
67%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.88
14.20
Shots allowedContext
7.90
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.11
3.00
BlocksContext
2.33
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
68%
Save rateContext
79%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
445
PassesContext
514
383
Accurate passesContext
450
86%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.98
10.30
FoulsContext
12.50
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Metz
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km263 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lyon
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel382 km463 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Metz |
Lyon |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 382 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 263 km | 463 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 2 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
2M. Colin
15T. Yegbe
5J. Gbamin
39K. Kouao
8B. Traoré
12Alpha Touré
20J. Deminguet
7G. Tsitaishvili
30M. Diallo
10G. Hein
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
33H. Hateboer
21R. Kluivert
22Clinton Mata
17Afonso Moreira
23T. Morton
6F. Tessmann
98A. Maitland-Niles
8C. Tolisso
44Khalis Merah
9Endrick
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Metz
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lyon
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Metz+1.0 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Lyon-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Metz · Home
1.00points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-4
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 1.25
Lyon · Away
1.33points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-3
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 1.22
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Metz | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Lorient | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 2–3 H | L 2–3 H |
| Auxerre | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 A |
| Rennes | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 2–3 A | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Nice | W 2–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Nantes | W 2–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Lens | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Lille | L 1–6 A | W 1–0 A |
| Toulouse | L 0–4 A | L 1–2 H |
| Marseille | L 0–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Monaco | L 2–5 A | W 3–1 A |
| Angers | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Paris FC | L 2–3 A | D 3–3 A |
| Points | 12 of 51 · 0.71 per game | 30 of 51 · 1.76 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Metz wins2 draws2 Lyon wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.80
Over 2.560%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets0% · 20%
- 23 Aug 2025Lyon3–0Metz
- 23 Feb 2024Metz1–2Lyon
- 5 Nov 2023Lyon1–1Metz
- 8 May 2022Metz3–2Lyon
- 22 Dec 2021Lyon1–1Metz
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Metz | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.22 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.28 | 2.50 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 56% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 44% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Metz | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.70 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Metz | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.18 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 9.18 | 10.50 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 35% 6/17 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 18% 3/17 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 3/17 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.61 | |
| Match total | 3.17 | 4.83 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 8/18 | 78% 14/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 28% 5/18 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Metz | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 5.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.86 | |
| Match total | 9.44 | 9.15 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 5.20 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 89 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.17league 3.62
Red cards0.21league 0.32
Cards 5+22%league 35%
Fouls20.8league 24.2
Penalties0.35league 0.43
Home wins49%league 50%
Metz9 with this referee
Record3-1-5
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- L7 Dec 25A · Auxerre1–31
- L23 Aug 25A · Lyon0–32
- L30 Mar 24H · Monaco2–50
- W3 Mar 24A · Nantes2–02
- W8 May 22H · Lyon3–23
Lyon14 with this referee
Record7-1-6
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.5
Pens for · against5 · 3
Reds1
- W26 Oct 25H · Strasbourg2–10
- W23 Aug 25H · Metz3–00
- W5 Apr 25H · Lille2–13
- L23 Feb 25H · Paris Saint Germain2–31
- L11 Jan 25A · Stade Brestois 291–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Metz18 games · scored 19 · conceded 40
3
4
0-15
3
5
16-30
2
8
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
5
61-75
8
13
76-90
Lyon18 games · scored 27 · conceded 18
3
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
5
4
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
9
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
7
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
61-75
8
4
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 20 · conceded 7
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
6
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
