Metz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Marseille were clear favourites.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 15). Metz had 6 days of rest, Marseille 7.8 and had to travel 649 km.
Away travel649 kmRest days6 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Metz16%
Draw22%
Marseille62%
Metz16%
Draw22%
Marseille61%
Metz16%
Draw22%
Marseille62%
Metz12%
Draw19%
Marseille69%
Metz17%
Draw22%
Marseille61%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Longeville-lès-Metz)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceClement Turpin
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 119
Team strength
Metz
Marseille
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
11
AttackIn forecast
48
17
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMarseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MetzMarseille
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.83
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
1.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
50%
Scored inContext
67%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
8.17
ShotsContext
12.83
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
25%
On target shareContext
36%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
74%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
1.40
OffsidesContext
1.20
13.67
Shots allowedContext
10.17
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.40
BlocksContext
3.00
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
63%
Save rateContext
80%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
461
PassesContext
547
401
Accurate passesContext
487
87%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.97
11.67
FoulsContext
12.83
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.17
1.17
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.64
60%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.20
ShotsContext
13.70
2.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
27%
On target shareContext
39%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
67%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
18%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.63
14.80
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.89
BlocksContext
3.22
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
62%
Save rateContext
77%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
384
PassesContext
526
317
Accurate passesContext
466
83%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.74
Team ratingContext
7.04
11.60
FoulsContext
12.80
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Metz
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,212 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Marseille
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel649 km1,231 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Metz |
Marseille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 28 Sep | 7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 649 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,212 km | 1,231 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15 | 14.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
15T. Yegbe
5J. Gbamin
38S. Sané
97F. Ballo-Touré
20J. Deminguet
8B. Traoré
39K. Kouao
14C. Sabaly
10G. Hein
30M. Diallo
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
33Emerson
21N. Aguerd
28B. Pavard
22T. Weah
23P. Højbjerg
17M. O'Riley
14Igor Paixão
8A. Gomes
10M. Greenwood
34Robinio Vaz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Metz
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Marseille
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Metz+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Marseille-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Metz · Home
0.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Marseille · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Metz | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | L 2–3 A | W 5–2 H |
| Lyon | L 0–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Strasbourg | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 0 of 9 · 0.00 per game | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Metz wins3 draws1 Marseille wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 9 Feb 2024Marseille1–1Metz
- 18 Aug 2023Metz2–2Marseille
- 13 Feb 2022Metz1–2Marseille
- 7 Nov 2021Marseille0–0Metz
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Metz | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.83 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Metz | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.83 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Metz | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.80 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.17 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 4.67 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Metz | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 5.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.26 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.90 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Clement Turpin France · 119 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.23league 3.75
Red cards0.24league 0.35
Cards 5+29%league 40%
Fouls23.2league 24.7
Penalties0.34league 0.51
Home wins41%league 60%
Metz2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Sep 23H · Strasbourg0–12
- D1 May 22A · Montpellier2–23
Marseille10 with this referee
Record3-2-5
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.0
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds2
- L16 Mar 25A · Paris Saint Germain1–30
- W1 Dec 24H · Monaco2–10
- W20 Oct 24A · Montpellier5–03
- D21 Apr 24A · Toulouse2–22
- L6 May 23A · Lens1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Metz6 games · scored 5 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
6
76-90
Marseille6 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 9 · conceded 22
2
2
0-15
3
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
9
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 24 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
6
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
8
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
