Metz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were slight favourites.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Metz. Metz had 6.1 days of rest, Monaco 6.9 and had to travel 606 km.
Away travel606 kmRest days6.1 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Metz19%
Draw21%
Monaco60%
Metz17%
Draw23%
Monaco60%
Metz19%
Draw22%
Monaco59%
Metz14%
Draw19%
Monaco68%
Metz19%
Draw21%
Monaco60%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Longeville-lès-Metz)
No weather data yet
RefereeRuddy Buquet
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 76
Team strength
Metz
Monaco
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
11
AttackIn forecast
45
17
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MetzMonaco
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.74
2.26
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.52
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
58%
Scored inContext
81%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
9.42
ShotsContext
11.87
3.62
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.19
32%
On target shareContext
35%
6.25
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
61%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.78
OffsidesContext
3.00
14.61
Shots allowedContext
13.00
5.65
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
3.52
BlocksContext
3.65
3.79
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.26
64%
Save rateContext
65%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
443
PassesContext
467
381
Accurate passesContext
392
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.13
FoulsContext
12.55
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.61
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.69
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
50%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.20
ShotsContext
11.40
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
30%
On target shareContext
41%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
9.11
63%
Box shareContext
75%
9%
ConversionContext
18%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.57
15.10
Shots allowedContext
14.60
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
4.33
BlocksContext
4.30
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
59%
Save rateContext
69%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
448
PassesContext
458
385
Accurate passesContext
386
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.97
12.40
FoulsContext
11.30
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Metz
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km878 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Monaco
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel606 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Metz |
Monaco |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Apr | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 606 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 878 km | 962 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Metz
Confirmed XI
61P. Sy(G)
7G. Tsitaishvili
15T. Yegbe
38S. Sané
70B. Sarr
5J. Gbamin
21B. Stambouli
34Nathan Mbala
20J. Deminguet
10G. Hein
11G. Kvilitaia
Monaco
Confirmed XI
1L. Hrádecký(G)
13C. Mawissa
5J. Kehrer
6D. Zakaria
24S. Adingra
8P. Pogba
15M. Camara
4J. Teze
10A. Golovin
11M. Akliouche
9F. Balogun
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Metz
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Monaco
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Metz-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Monaco+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Metz · Home
0.67points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-9
- Scored
- 0.93
- Conceded
- 1.73
Monaco · Away
1.27points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-6
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Metz | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| LE Havre | D 4–4 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Paris FC | L 1–3 HL 2–3 A | L 1–4 AL 0–1 H |
| Marseille | L 1–3 AL 0–3 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Nantes | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | W 3–1 HW 5–3 A |
| Rennes | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H | W 4–0 HL 1–4 A |
| Toulouse | L 3–4 HL 0–4 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Lens | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | W 3–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Auxerre | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Lille | D 0–0 HL 1–6 A | L 0–1 A |
| Angers | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Lyon | L 2–5 HL 0–3 A | W 2–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Strasbourg | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Lorient | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Nice | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Points | 16 of 90 · 0.53 per game | 48 of 90 · 1.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 Metz wins0 draws5 Monaco wins
Goals per game1.20 – 3.60
Over 2.5100%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets0% · 20%
- 21 Sep 2025Monaco5–2Metz
- 30 Mar 2024Metz2–5Monaco
- 22 Oct 2023Monaco2–1Metz
- 3 Apr 2022Metz1–2Monaco
- 5 Dec 2021Monaco4–0Metz
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Metz | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.74 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.26 | 1.52 | |
| Match goals | 3.26 | 3.26 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 65% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 55% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 65% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 19% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Metz | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.60 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Metz | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.07 | 4.93 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.97 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.04 | 8.93 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 13/30 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 27% 8/30 | 47% 14/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 5/30 | 33% 10/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.74 | 2.32 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.48 | 1.81 | |
| Match total | 3.22 | 4.13 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 15/31 | 58% 18/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 19% 6/31 | 35% 11/31 | |
| Metz | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 9.34 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.80 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ruddy Buquet 76 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.79league 3.68
Red cards0.38league 0.27
Cards 5+41%league 36%
Fouls23.8league 23.7
Penalties0.33league 0.37
Home wins41%league 47%
Metz3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L4 May 24H · Rennes2–33
- L20 Dec 23A · Paris Saint Germain1–31
- L1 Dec 21H · Montpellier1–32
Monaco13 with this referee
Record8-2-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.8
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds5
- W6 Mar 26A · Paris Saint Germain3–13
- W31 Jan 26H · Rennes4–01
- L27 Sep 25A · Lorient1–33
- W16 Aug 25H · LE Havre3–10
- W21 Apr 24A · Stade Brestois 292–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Metz31 games · scored 31 · conceded 70
4
12
0-15
4
8
16-30
6
13
31-45
4
9
46-60
2
8
61-75
11
20
76-90
Monaco31 games · scored 54 · conceded 47
4
5
0-15
7
6
16-30
8
9
31-45
11
5
46-60
13
9
61-75
11
13
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 10 · conceded 24
1
7
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 21 · conceded 15
1
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
8
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
