Metz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Strasbourg were slight favourites.
Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 17). Metz had ? days of rest, Strasbourg ? and had to travel 132 km.
Away travel132 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Metz25%
Draw26%
Strasbourg49%
Metz25%
Draw26%
Strasbourg49%
Metz25%
Draw26%
Strasbourg49%
Metz19%
Draw24%
Strasbourg57%
Metz25%
Draw26%
Strasbourg49%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Longeville-lès-Metz)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceMathieu Vernice
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 45
Team strength
Metz
Strasbourg
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
11
AttackIn forecast
40
17
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStrasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MetzStrasbourg
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.70
ShotsContext
11.00
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
37%
On target shareContext
34%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
68%
Box shareContext
63%
14%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.17
17.20
Shots allowedContext
13.90
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
4.40
BlocksContext
4.00
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.56
66%
Save rateContext
79%
32%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
286
PassesContext
501
208
Accurate passesContext
440
73%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.12
12.10
FoulsContext
11.40
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Metz
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Strasbourg
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel132 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Metz |
Strasbourg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 132 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
7G. Tsitaishvili
4Urie-Michel Mboula
5J. Gbamin
38S. Sané
39K. Kouao
20J. Deminguet
21B. Stambouli
8B. Traoré
14C. Sabaly
24Brian Madjo
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
42A. Ouattara
23M. Sarr
24L. Høgsberg
18J. Mwanga
27S. Amo-Ameyaw
32V. Barco
29S. El Mourabet
80F. Lemaréchal
9J. Panichelli
10E. Emegha
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Metz
Absences are shown before kick-off
Strasbourg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Metz+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Strasbourg+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Metz · Home
No home games yet this season.
Strasbourg · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Metz wins0 draws4 Strasbourg wins
Goals per game0.25 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets0% · 75%
- 12 May 2024Strasbourg2–1Metz
- 24 Sep 2023Metz0–1Strasbourg
- 9 Jan 2022Metz0–2Strasbourg
- 17 Sep 2021Strasbourg3–0Metz
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Metz | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 54% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Metz | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 54% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Metz | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 11.40 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Metz | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.30 | 11.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mathieu Vernice France · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.18league 3.80
Red cards0.40league 0.20
Cards 5+53%league 60%
Fouls26.6league 23.4
Penalties0.33league 0.00
Home wins47%league 40%
Metz1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D3 Sep 23H · Reims2–20
Strasbourg3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.3.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 3
Reds1
- W2 Mar 25A · Auxerre1–04
- D18 Aug 24A · Montpellier1–13
- L5 Nov 22A · Ajaccio2–44
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
MetzStrasbourgMetz10 games · scored 14 · conceded 21
2
7
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
7
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
