Monaco vs Lens – 18 Sep 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 5 Fri, Sep 18 · 19:45 Stade Louis-II, Monaco

Monaco 2nd · 10 pts · 4 played WWWD

2–1Full time

Lens 10th · 4 pts · 4 played WLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Lens. Monaco had 6.1 days of rest, Lens 5.1 and had to travel 821 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel821 kmRest days6.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 3

Monaco42%

Draw24%

Lens34%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.48

Monaco44%

Draw26%

Lens30%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.19

Monaco43%

Draw24%

Lens34%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.46

Monaco34%

Draw24%

Lens42%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.66

Monaco42%

Draw24%

Lens34%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.47

Over 2.5 61% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Monaco)

23°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 9 km/h
Humidity 71%

Referee · FranceClement Turpin

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.36
Matches 151

Team strength

Monaco

Lens

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 58

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 56

45 AttackIn forecast 63

56 DefenceIn forecast 53

87 Form indexContext 42

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Monaco

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lens

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Monaco

Lens

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.75

1.44 xGVia Att/Def 3.65

0.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75

+0.06 Goals minus xGContext -1.65

100% Scored inContext 75%

50% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.50 ShotsContext 15.75

4.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00

41% On target shareContext 44%

6.25 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

60% Box shareContext 72%

14% ConversionContext 13%

2.75 OffsidesContext 2.25

15.50 Shots allowedContext 11.50

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

4.50 BlocksContext 3.00

3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

83% Save rateContext 61%

43% PossessionIn forecast 51%

424 PassesContext 472

365 Accurate passesContext 409

86% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.11 Team ratingContext 6.86

10.50 FoulsContext 11.50

10.25 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.34 xGVia Att/Def 2.22

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

+0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.22

90% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.40 ShotsContext 18.00

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

36% On target shareContext 36%

7.90 Shots in the boxContext 11.70

63% Box shareContext 66%

14% ConversionContext 11%

2.44 OffsidesContext 2.33

13.40 Shots allowedContext 11.70

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

3.67 BlocksContext 4.11

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

66% Save rateContext 66%

54% PossessionIn forecast 53%

486 PassesContext 460

416 Accurate passesContext 389

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.89

11.40 FoulsContext 11.00

9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Monaco WWWD

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,457 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 87 · 10 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · +4.9 vs expected

D12 SepA · Strasbourg1–11.4 xPts
W4 SepA · Paris Saint Germain2–10.6 xPts
W30 AugH · Marseille2–01.5 xPts
W23 AugA · LE Havre1–01.6 xPts

Lens WLLWD

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel821 km2,310 km in 14d

Schedule load32%Moderate

Form 42 · 7 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected

D13 SepA · Le Mans2–22.0 xPts
W10 SepA · Slavia Praha3–21.5 xPts
L5 SepH · Lorient0–12.3 xPts
L29 AugA · Strasbourg1–21.7 xPts
W22 AugH · Auxerre5–22.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Monaco	Lens
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Moderate · 32
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 12 Sep	5.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	821 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,457 km	2,310 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	22	21

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Monaco Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1L. Hrádecký(G)

20Flávio Nazinho 15E. Dier 72S. Sané 2Vanderson

10A. Golovin 6D. Zakaria 8M. Camara 37E. Diop

29P. Brunner 11M. Abline

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Lens Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40R. Risser(G)

14M. Udol 20J. Todibo 32Kyllian Antonio

28J. Kadile 21A. Haidara 27M. Cuisance 2R. Aguilar

38M. Mesloub 10F. Thauvin

19A. Sima

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Monaco Absences are shown before kick-off

Lens Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Monaco-0.7 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Lens+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Monaco · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.00

Lens · Away 0.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Monaco	Lens
Strasbourg	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 A
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Monaco wins2 draws5 Lens wins

Goals per game1.40 – 2.40 Over 2.580% Both scored60% Clean sheets10% · 30%

21 Feb 2026Lens2–3Monaco
8 Nov 2025Monaco1–4Lens
17 May 2025Lens4–0Monaco
1 Sep 2024Monaco1–1Lens
25 Feb 2024Lens2–3Monaco
2 Sep 2023Monaco3–0Lens

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Monaco	Lens	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	2.00
Conceded per game	0.50	1.75
Match goals	2.00	3.75	3.15
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	25%	75%	61%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	75%	63%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	0%	25%
Games	4	4

	Monaco	Lens	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	2.00
Conceded per game	1.70	1.50
Match goals	3.40	3.50	3.15
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	61%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	63%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Monaco	Lens	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	6.33
Corners conceded	5.00	4.33
Match total	10.33	10.66	9.90
Over 8.5	100% 3/3	100% 3/3
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	67% 2/3
Over 10.5	67% 2/3	67% 2/3
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.25
Opponent cards	1.25	1.75
Match total	3.25	4.00	2.97
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	75% 3/4
Over 4.5	25% 1/4	25% 1/4

	Monaco	Lens	League
Corners
Corners won	6.33	7.25
Corners conceded	3.56	6.38
Match total	9.89	13.63	9.90
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	100% 8/8
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	75% 6/8
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	75% 6/8
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.30
Opponent cards	1.50	1.60
Match total	3.20	3.90	2.97
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Clement Turpin France · 151 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.21league 2.86

Red cards0.23league 0.11

Cards 5+28%league 17%

Fouls22.9league 23.3

Penalties0.36league 0.33

Home wins40%league 28%

Monaco17 with this referee

Record9-3-5 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.5 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds2

L10 May 26H · Lille0–11
D25 Apr 26A · Toulouse2–22
W5 Apr 26H · Marseille2–12
W29 Nov 25H · Paris Saint Germain1–05
D26 Apr 25A · LE Havre1–10

Lens7 with this referee

Record5-2-0 Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.4 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds1

D27 Feb 26A · Strasbourg1–12
W12 Jan 25A · LE Havre2–12
W9 Nov 24H · Nantes3–22
W2 Dec 23H · Lyon3–23
W6 May 23H · Marseille2–15

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.