Monaco vs Marseille – 30 Aug 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 30 · 19:45 Stade Louis-II, Monaco

Monaco 8th · 3 pts · 1 played W

2–0Full time

Marseille 6th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Monaco were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Marseille. Monaco had 7.1 days of rest, Marseille 9 and had to travel 172 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel172 kmRest days7.1 · 9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Monaco43%

Draw24%

Marseille33%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.37

Monaco44%

Draw26%

Marseille30%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.19

Monaco42%

Draw25%

Marseille33%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.36

Monaco35%

Draw24%

Marseille40%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.54

Monaco43%

Draw25%

Marseille33%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.33

Over 2.5 57% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Monaco)

26°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 6 km/h
Humidity 75%

Warm

Referee · FranceWilly Delajod

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.39
Matches 112

Team strength

Monaco

Marseille

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 53

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

45 AttackIn forecast 48

56 DefenceIn forecast 46

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Monaco

Attack—

Defense risk—

Marseille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Monaco

Marseille

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.73

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

90% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.00 ShotsContext 16.60

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.10

37% On target shareContext 37%

9.56 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

70% Box shareContext 62%

14% ConversionContext 9%

2.63 OffsidesContext 2.17

13.20 Shots allowedContext 10.20

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

3.89 BlocksContext 2.67

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10

61% Save rateContext 66%

56% PossessionIn forecast 56%

488 PassesContext 495

411 Accurate passesContext 429

84% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.86

12.60 FoulsContext 11.30

9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Monaco W

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,697 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 62 · 3 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected

W23 AugA · LE Havre1–01.6 xPts

Marseille W

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel172 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 62 · 3 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected

W21 AugH · Strasbourg4–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Monaco	Marseille
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 23 Aug	9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 21 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	172 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,697 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	5	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Monaco Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1L. Hrádecký(G)

20Flávio Nazinho 15E. Dier 72S. Sané 2Vanderson

6D. Zakaria 8M. Camara

17S. Idumbo 10A. Golovin 28M. Coulibaly

29P. Brunner

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Marseille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12J. de Lange(G)

33Emerson 19G. Kondogbia 4C. Egan-Riley 22T. Weah

23P. Højbjerg 8H. Abdelli

27Q. Timber 7A. Gomes 77A. Harit

9A. Gouiri

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Monaco Absences are shown before kick-off

Marseille Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Monaco+0.2 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Marseille+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Monaco · Home No home games yet this season.

Marseille · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Monaco wins2 draws4 Marseille wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.40 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%

5 Apr 2026Monaco2–1Marseille
14 Dec 2025Marseille1–0Monaco
12 Apr 2025Monaco3–0Marseille
1 Dec 2024Marseille2–1Monaco
27 Jan 2024Marseille2–2Monaco
30 Sep 2023Monaco3–2Marseille

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Monaco	Marseille	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	4.00
Conceded per game	0.00	0.00
Match goals	1.00	4.00	2.96
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	57%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	59%
Clean sheets	100%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Monaco	Marseille	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.50
Conceded per game	1.70	1.20
Match goals	3.50	2.70	2.96
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	57%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	59%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Monaco	Marseille	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.00
Corners conceded	7.00	4.00
Match total	11.00	7.00	10.27
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.00
Opponent cards	3.00	3.00
Match total	5.00	4.00	3.20
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	Monaco	Marseille	League
Corners
Corners won	5.89	6.13
Corners conceded	3.78	4.13
Match total	9.67	10.26	10.27
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.40
Opponent cards	1.80	1.90
Match total	3.60	4.30	3.20
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Willy Delajod France · 112 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.49league 3.06

Red cards0.25league 0.18

Cards 5+37%league 24%

Fouls24.6league 23.1

Penalties0.39league 0.53

Home wins41%league 29%

Monaco12 with this referee

Record4-4-4 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.8 Pens for · against3 · 5 Reds5

W21 Feb 26A · Lens3–21
L16 Jan 26H · Lorient1–31
D5 Oct 25H · Nice2–21
L24 Aug 25A · Lille0–12
W15 Mar 25A · Angers2–02

Marseille16 with this referee

Record6-4-6 Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.9 Pens for · against3 · 1 Reds2

D26 Apr 26H · Nice1–14
L8 Feb 26A · Paris Saint Germain0–52
W8 Nov 25H · Stade Brestois 293–00
W10 May 25A · LE Havre3–12
L29 Mar 25A · Reims1–30

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.