Monaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Monaco
7th · 40 pts · 25 played
DWWWW
2–0Full time
Stade Brestois 29
10th · 36 pts · 25 played
WDWWW
Our take
Monaco were slight favourites.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Monaco. Monaco had 8 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 6.2 and had to travel 1,053 km.
Away travel1,053 kmRest days8 · 6.2Matches / 14d1 · 2
Monaco58%
Draw25%
Stade Brestois 2918%
Monaco51%
Draw25%
Stade Brestois 2923%
Monaco58%
Draw25%
Stade Brestois 2917%
Monaco50%
Draw27%
Stade Brestois 2923%
Monaco58%
Draw24%
Stade Brestois 2918%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Monaco)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 98
Team strength
MonacoStade Brestois 29
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
45
AttackIn forecast
47
56
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MonacoStade Brestois 29
1.72
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.36
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
76%
Scored inContext
72%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
11.80
ShotsContext
11.20
4.08
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.68
35%
On target shareContext
33%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.92
68%
Box shareContext
62%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
2.89
OffsidesContext
1.63
12.76
Shots allowedContext
12.92
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.52
3.56
BlocksContext
3.88
3.24
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.09
65%
Save rateContext
68%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
464
PassesContext
362
390
Accurate passesContext
284
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.83
12.52
FoulsContext
13.12
11.28
Fouls sufferedContext
11.72
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.76
0.16
Red cardsContext
0.16
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.68
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
70%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.50
ShotsContext
9.90
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
42%
On target shareContext
34%
6.78
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
67%
Box shareContext
59%
18%
ConversionContext
14%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.40
Shots allowedContext
14.40
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
4.30
BlocksContext
4.80
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
74%
Save rateContext
74%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
401
PassesContext
335
329
Accurate passesContext
256
82%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.90
FoulsContext
13.80
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Monaco
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,378 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Stade Brestois 29
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,053 km1,565 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Monaco |
Stade Brestois 29 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 6 Mar | 6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,053 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,378 km | 1,565 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Monaco
Confirmed XI
1L. Hrádecký(G)
25W. Faes
6D. Zakaria
5J. Kehrer
24S. Adingra
23Aladji Bamba
15M. Camara
4J. Teze
10A. Golovin
9F. Balogun
11M. Akliouche
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
30G. Coudert(G)
27D. Guindo
4M. Diaz
5B. Chardonnet
77K. Lala
8H. Magnetti
13J. Chotard
7É. Dina Ebimbe
23K. Doumbia
10R. Del Castillo
19L. Ajorque
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Monaco
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Stade Brestois 29
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Monaco-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Stade Brestois 29+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Monaco · Home
1.92points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-4
- Scored
- 2.08
- Conceded
- 1.46
Stade Brestois 29 · Away
1.00points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-6
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Monaco | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Angers | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Lens | W 3–2 AL 1–4 H | L 1–3 A |
| Nantes | W 3–1 HW 5–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| Nice | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 AW 4–1 H |
| Rennes | W 4–0 HL 1–4 A | L 1–3 A |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Lorient | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | W 2–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Lyon | L 1–3 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Marseille | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Paris FC | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Metz | W 5–2 H | W 1–0 AW 3–2 H |
| Auxerre | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Strasbourg | W 3–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Lille | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Points | 40 of 72 · 1.67 per game | 33 of 72 · 1.38 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
6 Monaco wins0 draws3 Stade Brestois 29 wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.11
Over 2.544%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets33% · 22%
- 5 Dec 2025Stade Brestois 291–0Monaco
- 5 Apr 2025Stade Brestois 292–1Monaco
- 22 Nov 2024Monaco3–2Stade Brestois 29
- 21 Apr 2024Stade Brestois 290–2Monaco
- 5 Nov 2023Monaco2–0Stade Brestois 29
- 19 Feb 2023Stade Brestois 291–2Monaco
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Monaco | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.72 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 1.36 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.72 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 48% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 44% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 28% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Monaco | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.40 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Monaco | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.76 | 4.26 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.12 | 5.26 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 9.52 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 14/25 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 11/25 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 8/25 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 1.92 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.76 | |
| Match total | 4.24 | 3.68 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 14/25 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 9/25 | 36% 9/25 | |
| Monaco | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 5.89 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 9.89 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.20 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 98 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.35league 3.72
Red cards0.31league 0.28
Cards 5+54%league 36%
Fouls22.5league 23.9
Penalties0.39league 0.38
Home wins43%league 49%
Monaco8 with this referee
Record0-5-3
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds4
- L27 Oct 24A · Nice1–25
- D25 Aug 23A · Nantes3–32
- D28 Jan 23A · Marseille1–12
- D13 Aug 22H · Rennes1–11
- D20 Feb 22A · Bordeaux1–14
Stade Brestois 2911 with this referee
Record5-1-5
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.6
Pens for · against4 · 3
- L25 Oct 25H · Paris Saint Germain0–31
- W7 Feb 25A · Nantes2–02
- L10 Nov 24A · Montpellier1–31
- L25 Aug 24A · Lens0–23
- W19 May 24A · Toulouse3–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Monaco25 games · scored 43 · conceded 37
3
2
0-15
5
5
16-30
7
7
31-45
8
5
46-60
10
7
61-75
10
11
76-90
Stade Brestois 2925 games · scored 34 · conceded 34
6
5
0-15
5
7
16-30
6
6
31-45
6
3
46-60
4
6
61-75
7
7
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
2
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
