Monza vs Sassuolo – 18 Sep 2026

Serie A Gameweek 5 Fri, Sep 18 · 19:45 U-Power Stadium, Monza

Monza 18th · 1 pts · 4 played LLDL

2–1Full time

Sassuolo 9th · 7 pts · 4 played LWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sassuolo were slight favourites.

Sassuolo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Monza. Monza had 5.2 days of rest, Sassuolo 5 and had to travel 145 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel145 kmRest days5.2 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2

Monza32%

Draw25%

Sassuolo43%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.58

Monza28%

Draw25%

Sassuolo47%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.55

Monza33%

Draw25%

Sassuolo43%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.56

Monza25%

Draw23%

Sassuolo51%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.77

Monza32%

Draw24%

Sassuolo44%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.60

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Monza)

21°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 67%

RefereeDaniele Perenzoni

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 7

Team strength

Monza

Sassuolo

15 L90 StrengthIn forecast 36

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

34 AttackIn forecast 41

26 DefenceIn forecast 32

17 Form indexContext 66

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Monza

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sassuolo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Monza

Sassuolo

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

2.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.75

1.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.50

1.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

-0.36 Goals minus xGContext +0.50

100% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.25 ShotsContext 16.75

5.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.75

43% On target shareContext 40%

10.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.75

80% Box shareContext 59%

11% ConversionContext 12%

4.75 OffsidesContext 2.67

9.75 Shots allowedContext 15.75

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00

2.50 BlocksContext 5.25

1.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.25

39% Save rateContext 71%

49% PossessionIn forecast 44%

402 PassesContext 413

331 Accurate passesContext 363

82% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.55 Team ratingContext 6.86

13.00 FoulsContext 9.50

11.75 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.25 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.45

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

-0.30 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

60% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.60 ShotsContext 13.50

4.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

39% On target shareContext 36%

7.44 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

64% Box shareContext 63%

9% ConversionContext 11%

3.56 OffsidesContext 1.86

12.80 Shots allowedContext 14.40

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

3.00 BlocksContext 3.90

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

55% Save rateContext 69%

51% PossessionIn forecast 49%

435 PassesContext 435

371 Accurate passesContext 379

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.90

10.80 FoulsContext 10.70

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Monza LLDL

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,095 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 17 · 1 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -2.3 vs expected

L13 SepA · Lecce2–31.1 xPts
D6 SepA · Parma1–11.0 xPts
L29 AugH · Udinese2–31.1 xPts
L22 AugA · Inter1–40.2 xPts

Sassuolo LWDW

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel145 km121 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 66 · 7 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · +2.5 vs expected

W13 SepH · Juventus3–21.1 xPts
D6 SepA · Bologna2–20.9 xPts
W29 AugH · Torino2–11.7 xPts
L23 AugA · Atalanta1–20.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Monza	Sassuolo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.2Serie A 2026-2027, 13 Sep	5Serie A 2026-2027, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	145 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,095 km	121 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	22.8	22.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Monza Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1N. Törnqvist(G)

44A. Carboni 3L. Lucchesi 60E. Kouadio

7Ricardo Mangas 14E. Akinsanmiro 90M. Folorunsho 19S. Birindelli

46J. Robinson 10P. Cutrone

9Gustavo Varela

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Sassuolo Confirmed XI

4-3-3

49A. Murić(G)

3J. Doig 16F. Leysen 15D. Ćaleta-Car 46S. Cinquegrano

50D. Bakola 18N. Matić 42K. Thorstvedt

45A. Laurienté 94S. Esposito 10D. Berardi

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Monza Absences are shown before kick-off

Sassuolo Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Monza-0.8 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Sassuolo+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Monza · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 3.00

Sassuolo · Away 0.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 Monza wins1 draws0 Sassuolo wins

Goals per game1.25 – 0.50 Over 2.525% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

28 Jan 2024Monza1–0Sassuolo
2 Oct 2023Sassuolo0–1Monza
19 May 2023Sassuolo1–2Monza
22 Jan 2023Monza1–1Sassuolo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Monza	Sassuolo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	2.00
Conceded per game	2.75	1.75
Match goals	4.25	3.75	2.90
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	75%	100%	55%
Over 3.5	75%	50%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	4	4

	Monza	Sassuolo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.50
Conceded per game	2.75	1.40
Match goals	4.25	2.90	2.90
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	75%	70%	55%
Over 3.5	75%	30%
Both teams scored	100%	70%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	4	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Monza	Sassuolo	League
Corners
Corners won	3.25	4.50
Corners conceded	4.00	6.50
Match total	7.25	11.00	9.41
Over 8.5	25% 1/4	50% 2/4
Over 9.5	0% 0/4	50% 2/4
Over 10.5	0% 0/4	50% 2/4
Cards
Cards	1.25	1.50
Opponent cards	1.50	1.50
Match total	2.75	3.00	3.15
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	75% 3/4
Over 4.5	0% 0/4	0% 0/4

	Monza	Sassuolo	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	3.60
Corners conceded	4.88	6.00
Match total	8.38	9.60	9.41
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	13% 1/8	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.90
Opponent cards	1.70	2.50
Match total	3.40	4.40	3.15
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Perenzoni 7 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.57league 3.08

Red cards0.14league 0.03

Cards 5+29%league 18%

Fouls25.7league 22.3

Penalties0.14league 0.05

Home wins71%league 43%

Monza2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L27 Apr 25A · Juventus0–23
W9 Oct 22H · Spezia2–03

Sassuolo1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W28 Sep 25H · Udinese3–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.