Motherwell
Attack—
Defense risk—
Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
Knockout phase Sun, Oct 11 · 12:00
Fir Park, Motherwell
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel19 kmRest days? · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Motherwell—%
Draw—%
Celtic—%
Weather (Motherwell)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Motherwell
Celtic
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
24
AttackIn forecast
74
18
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCeltic
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MotherwellCeltic
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.57
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
2.82
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.82
57%
Scored inContext
86%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
14.57
ShotsContext
20.00
4.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.29
32%
On target shareContext
41%
9.71
Shots in the boxContext
14.86
67%
Box shareContext
75%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.25
15.14
Shots allowedContext
11.14
4.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.14
5.43
BlocksContext
3.14
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.43
66%
Save rateContext
83%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
594
PassesContext
599
525
Accurate passesContext
525
88%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.92
Team ratingContext
7.29
11.14
FoulsContext
10.86
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.14
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.14
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
2.82
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.92
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.90
ShotsContext
18.10
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.20
32%
On target shareContext
40%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
12.70
66%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.71
13.30
Shots allowedContext
15.20
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
4.40
BlocksContext
4.40
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
65%
Save rateContext
75%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
539
PassesContext
608
467
Accurate passesContext
532
87%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.90
Team ratingContext
7.17
10.70
FoulsContext
11.40
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Motherwell
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Celtic
L
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel19 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 37 · 0 pts vs 1.5 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected
- L17 SepH · Ferencvarosi TC1–31.5 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Motherwell |
Celtic |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | 21Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 19 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 76.2 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Motherwell
Confirmed XI
1A. Paulsen(G)
45M. Emmanuel
5M. Moormann
2S. O'Donnell
7T. Sparrow
63D. Levitt
8L. Fadinger
71J. Hodge
11A. Lowry
77W. Vogt
47S. Palmer-Houlden
Celtic
Confirmed XI
1V. Sinisalo(G)
63K. Tierney
5L. Scales
47D. Murray
51C. Donovan
22M. Baur
42C. McGregor
17S. Tounekti
8E. Nygren
11Camilo Duran
9K. Høgh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Motherwell
Absences are shown before kick-off
Celtic
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Motherwell · Home
No home games yet this season.
Celtic · Away
3.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Motherwell | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| Dundee | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Aberdeen | L 0–4 H | W 3–0 H |
| Rangers | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| ST Mirren | D 3–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Falkirk | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 2 of 15 · 0.40 per game | 12 of 15 · 2.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
1 Motherwell wins1 draws8 Celtic wins
Goals per game1.10 – 2.50
Over 2.580%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets10% · 20%
- 13 May 2026Motherwell2–3Celtic
- 14 Mar 2026Celtic3–1Motherwell
- 30 Dec 2025Motherwell2–0Celtic
- 5 Oct 2025Celtic3–2Motherwell
- 2 Feb 2025Motherwell1–3Celtic
- 26 Dec 2024Celtic4–0Motherwell
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Motherwell | Celtic | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | — | 0.57 | |
| Match goals | — | 2.57 | |
| Over 1.5 | — | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | — | 57% | |
| Over 3.5 | — | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | — | 43% | |
| Clean sheets | — | 43% | |
| Failed to score | — | 14% | |
| Games | 0 | 7 |
| Motherwell | Celtic | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | — | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | — | 3.10 | |
| Over 1.5 | — | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | — | 70% | |
| Over 3.5 | — | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | — | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | — | 40% | |
| Failed to score | — | 10% | |
| Games | 0 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Motherwell | Celtic | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.57 | 9.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.57 | 4.14 | |
| Match total | 11.14 | 13.57 | 11.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 100% 7/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 71% 5/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 1.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.43 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Motherwell | Celtic | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 9.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 13.50 | 11.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Motherwell7 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Celtic7 games · scored 14 · conceded 4
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
76-90
Motherwell10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
7
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.