Motherwell
Attack—
Defense risk—
Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
Knockout phase Wed, Feb 3 · 19:45
Fir Park, Motherwell
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel19 kmRest days39.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d0 · 4
Real contextStrength only
Motherwell—%
Draw—%
Celtic—%
Weather (Motherwell)
Forecast from 19 Jan
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Motherwell and Celtic. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Celtic
+1.12
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.44xG against1.32
-
Trend
Celtic
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Celtic
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Attack
-
Insight
Celtic
+1.12
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.44xG against1.32
-
Trend
Celtic
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Celtic
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Celtic
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Celtic
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 6 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Celtic
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
MotherwellCeltic
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
24
AttackIn forecast
74
18
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCeltic
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MotherwellCeltic
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.56
1.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.56
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
3.01
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.45
56%
Scored inContext
89%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
44%
14.00
ShotsContext
20.33
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
9.22
33%
On target shareContext
45%
9.44
Shots in the boxContext
15.11
68%
Box shareContext
75%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.67
16.33
Shots allowedContext
11.78
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
5.78
BlocksContext
3.56
4.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
70%
Save rateContext
83%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
559
PassesContext
604
488
Accurate passesContext
533
87%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.92
Team ratingContext
7.29
9.89
FoulsContext
10.78
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.89
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.44
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
2.44
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.44
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.00
ShotsContext
17.00
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.70
34%
On target shareContext
45%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
12.20
69%
Box shareContext
73%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.44
15.40
Shots allowedContext
16.50
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
5.40
BlocksContext
5.20
4.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
70%
Save rateContext
66%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
542
PassesContext
587
472
Accurate passesContext
516
87%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.20
FoulsContext
11.70
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Motherwell
Rest39.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Motherwell |
Celtic |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | High · 48 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 39.2Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 26 Dec | 3.2Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 19 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,617 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 2 / 4 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | 9.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Motherwell
Last XI · not confirmed
1A. Paulsen(G)
45M. Emmanuel
5M. Moormann
2S. O'Donnell
7T. Sparrow
71J. Hodge
8L. Fadinger
19I. Said
11A. Lowry
18T. Maswanhise
47S. Palmer-Houlden
Celtic
Last XI · not confirmed
1V. Sinisalo(G)
63K. Tierney
5L. Scales
47D. Murray
51C. Donovan
22M. Baur
42C. McGregor
19C. Osmand
8E. Nygren
23H. Hassan
11Camilo Duran
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Motherwell
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Celtic
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Motherwell · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Celtic · Away
3.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Motherwell | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock | L 2–3 A | W 5–1 A |
| Dundee | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Aberdeen | L 0–4 H | W 3–0 H |
| Rangers | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| ST Mirren | D 3–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Falkirk | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 2 of 18 · 0.33 per game | 15 of 18 · 2.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
1 Motherwell wins1 draws8 Celtic wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.50
Over 2.570%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets10% · 30%
- 11 Oct 2026Motherwell0–2Celtic
- 13 May 2026Motherwell2–3Celtic
- 14 Mar 2026Celtic3–1Motherwell
- 30 Dec 2025Motherwell2–0Celtic
- 5 Oct 2025Celtic3–2Motherwell
- 2 Feb 2025Motherwell1–3Celtic
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Motherwell | Celtic | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.56 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.56 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.11 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 56% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 44% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 11% | |
| Games | 1 | 9 |
| Motherwell | Celtic | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.60 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 70% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 10% | |
| Games | 1 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Motherwell | Celtic | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 9.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.89 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 10.78 | 12.78 | 11.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 100% 9/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 1.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.44 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.77 | 3.44 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 11% 1/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Motherwell | Celtic | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 8.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 13.30 | 11.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.60 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Motherwell9 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Celtic9 games · scored 23 · conceded 5
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
7
2
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Motherwell10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 20 · conceded 16
5
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.