NAC Breda vs Heerenveen – 11 May 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Mon, May 11 · 13:30 Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

NAC Breda 17th · 25 pts · 32 played LDDLL

First leg3–3 2–0Full time

Heerenveen 8th · 50 pts · 32 played DWLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Heerenveen were slight favourites.

Heerenveen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 12). Absences weigh more on Heerenveen. NAC Breda had 8.9 days of rest, Heerenveen 8.1 and had to travel 171 km.

Away travel171 kmRest days8.9 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

NAC Breda28%

Draw24%

Heerenveen48%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.80

NAC Breda27%

Draw26%

Heerenveen47%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.58

NAC Breda27%

Draw24%

Heerenveen49%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.82

NAC Breda22%

Draw22%

Heerenveen56%

Expected goals 1.20 – 2.02

NAC Breda28%

Draw25%

Heerenveen47%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.73

Over 2.5 61% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Breda)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 63

Team strength

NAC Breda

Heerenveen

12 L90 StrengthIn forecast 33

14 Current StrengthIn forecast 31

19 AttackIn forecast 36

19 DefenceIn forecast 40

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

NAC Breda

Attack—

Defense risk—

Heerenveen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

NAC Breda

Heerenveen

0.94 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.78

1.72 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.59

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

1.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

56% Scored inContext 81%

16% Clean sheetsContext 13%

13.28 ShotsContext 14.38

4.23 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.45

30% On target shareContext 37%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 9.58

60% Box shareContext 67%

7% ConversionContext 12%

1.87 OffsidesContext 1.73

12.34 Shots allowedContext 12.63

5.03 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.09

3.14 BlocksContext 3.27

3.69 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

70% Save rateContext 69%

49% PossessionIn forecast 51%

391 PassesContext 431

307 Accurate passesContext 347

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.85

10.84 FoulsContext 10.75

12.59 Fouls sufferedContext 9.41

1.59 Yellow cardsContext 1.44

0.16 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.66

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.71

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.54

50% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.20 ShotsContext 12.70

3.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

25% On target shareContext 42%

7.90 Shots in the boxContext 9.10

56% Box shareContext 73%

5% ConversionContext 17%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.13

11.70 Shots allowedContext 16.70

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.20

3.67 BlocksContext 4.44

3.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.80

74% Save rateContext 77%

50% PossessionIn forecast 48%

374 PassesContext 414

293 Accurate passesContext 331

78% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.63 Team ratingContext 6.94

10.70 FoulsContext 9.40

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 7.10

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

NAC Breda

Rest8.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km122 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Heerenveen

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel171 km154 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	NAC Breda	Heerenveen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 2 May	8.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 3 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	171 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	122 km	154 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

NAC Breda Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

99D. Bielica(G)

22R. Hillen 15E. Mahmutović 3D. Odoi

4B. Kemper 16M. Balard 14K. Sowah 25C. Valerius

90L. Holtby

9M. Soumano 24A. Ayew

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Heerenveen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22B. Klaverboer(G)

19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude

16M. Linday 8L. Brouwers

11L. Oyen 10R. Meerveld 20J. Trenskow

9D. Vente

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

NAC Breda Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Heerenveen Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

NAC Breda+1.3 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Heerenveen-1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

NAC Breda · Home 1.06points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 4-5-7
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 1.44

Heerenveen · Away 1.31points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 6-3-7
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.69

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	NAC Breda	Heerenveen
Utrecht	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A
Ajax	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A	D 1–1 A
Fortuna Sittard	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A
Sparta Rotterdam	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	W 2–1 HW 3–0 A
PEC Zwolle	L 1–2 AD 2–2 H	W 4–2 HL 1–2 A
GO Ahead Eagles	L 0–6 AW 1–0 H	W 3–1 AD 2–2 H
Feyenoord	D 3–3 HL 0–2 A	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A
Telstar	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H	W 3–0 HW 3–2 A
FC Volendam	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H
Heracles	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H	W 4–1 HW 3–0 A
Excelsior	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H
Twente	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A	L 0–5 AL 1–2 H
PSV Eindhoven	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H	L 1–3 AL 0–2 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 3–4 HL 0–3 A	D 2–2 AW 3–2 H
Groningen	D 0–0 AL 1–2 H	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–1 H	L 0–3 AW 3–1 H
Points	24 of 93 · 0.77 per game	49 of 93 · 1.58 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 NAC Breda wins1 draws2 Heerenveen wins

Goals per game1.67 – 3.67 Over 2.5100% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

24 Oct 2025Heerenveen3–3NAC Breda
12 Jan 2025NAC Breda2–4Heerenveen
31 Aug 2024Heerenveen4–0NAC Breda

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	NAC Breda	Heerenveen	Forecast
Scored per game	0.94	1.78
Conceded per game	1.72	1.59
Match goals	2.66	3.38	3.14
Over 1.5	69%	97%
Over 2.5	50%	75%	61%
Over 3.5	25%	41%
Both teams scored	47%	69%	62%
Clean sheets	16%	13%
Failed to score	44%	19%
Games	32	32

	NAC Breda	Heerenveen	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	2.20
Conceded per game	1.90	1.40
Match goals	2.60	3.60	3.14
Over 1.5	70%	100%
Over 2.5	40%	90%	61%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	30%	70%	62%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	50%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	NAC Breda	Heerenveen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.63	5.50
Corners conceded	4.22	4.90
Match total	9.85	10.40	10.31
Over 8.5	66% 21/32	77% 23/30
Over 9.5	53% 17/32	57% 17/30
Over 10.5	50% 16/32	50% 15/30
Cards
Cards	1.81	1.50
Opponent cards	1.94	1.44
Match total	3.75	2.94	3.29
Over 3.5	50% 16/32	34% 11/32
Over 4.5	38% 12/32	19% 6/32

	NAC Breda	Heerenveen	League
Corners
Corners won	6.40	4.78
Corners conceded	4.80	5.44
Match total	11.20	10.22	10.31
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.40
Opponent cards	1.70	1.20
Match total	3.10	2.60	3.29
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 63 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.40league 3.11

Red cards0.29league 0.18

Cards 5+33%league 26%

Fouls22.0league 21.2

Penalties0.17league 0.21

Home wins48%league 44%

NAC Breda4 with this referee

Record0-1-3 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 1

D18 May 25H · Willem II1–12
L12 Jan 25H · Heerenveen2–40
L9 Nov 24H · PSV Eindhoven0–32
L22 Sep 24A · Feyenoord0–22

Heerenveen7 with this referee

Record2-2-3 Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.9 Pens for · against1 · 1

W14 Mar 26H · Telstar3–03
D11 Jan 26H · Feyenoord2–21
L12 Apr 25A · Sparta Rotterdam1–32
W12 Jan 25A · NAC Breda4–23
L14 Sep 24A · AZ Alkmaar1–91

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.