NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen – 17 Jan 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Jan 17 · 20:00 Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

NAC Breda 16th · 14 pts · 18 played LLDLD

First leg0–3 3–4Full time

NEC Nijmegen 4th · 29 pts · 17 played WWWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.

NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 14). NAC Breda had 7 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 28 and had to travel 79 km.

Away travel79 kmRest days7 · 28Matches / 14d1 · 0

NAC Breda25%

Draw25%

NEC Nijmegen50%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.74

NAC Breda26%

Draw26%

NEC Nijmegen48%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.60

NAC Breda26%

Draw25%

NEC Nijmegen49%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.70

NAC Breda20%

Draw23%

NEC Nijmegen58%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.95

NAC Breda26%

Draw26%

NEC Nijmegen49%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.64

Over 2.5 56% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Breda)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsErwin Blank

Cards per match 3.3
Penalties per match 0.09
Matches 22

Team strength

NAC Breda

NEC Nijmegen

14 L90 StrengthIn forecast 37

14 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

19 AttackIn forecast 37

19 DefenceIn forecast 33

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

NAC Breda

Attack—

Defense risk—

NEC Nijmegen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

NAC Breda

NEC Nijmegen

0.89 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.53

1.44 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.71

1.15 xGVia Att/Def 1.85

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext +0.68

56% Scored inContext 94%

11% Clean sheetsContext 18%

12.78 ShotsContext 15.88

4.06 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.88

30% On target shareContext 43%

8.06 Shots in the boxContext 10.18

62% Box shareContext 63%

7% ConversionContext 16%

1.92 OffsidesContext 2.57

12.50 Shots allowedContext 11.59

5.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.18

2.76 BlocksContext 2.35

3.61 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.69

71% Save rateContext 69%

50% PossessionIn forecast 57%

405 PassesContext 422

324 Accurate passesContext 340

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.98

11.22 FoulsContext 11.65

12.89 Fouls sufferedContext 11.41

1.72 Yellow cardsContext 1.82

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.12

This league season, per match · 18 and 17 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.62

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

-0.29 Goals minus xGContext +0.58

50% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.70 ShotsContext 15.30

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

26% On target shareContext 43%

7.90 Shots in the boxContext 9.90

58% Box shareContext 64%

6% ConversionContext 14%

1.33 OffsidesContext 2.50

10.20 Shots allowedContext 11.90

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

2.11 BlocksContext 2.60

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

71% Save rateContext 73%

51% PossessionIn forecast 55%

425 PassesContext 401

344 Accurate passesContext 322

81% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.91

9.90 FoulsContext 11.50

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

NAC Breda

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km437 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

NEC Nijmegen

Rest28 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel79 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	NAC Breda	NEC Nijmegen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 Jan	28Eredivisie 2025-2026, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	79 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	437 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

NAC Breda Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

99D. Bielica(G)

4B. Kemper 22R. Hillen 12L. Greiml 3D. Odoi

14K. Sowah 16M. Balard

9M. Soumano 90L. Holtby 7C. Brym

17S. van Hooijdonk

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

NEC Nijmegen Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

1G. Crettaz(G)

4A. Kaplan 3P. Sandler 14E. Dasa

11B. Önal 6D. Nejašmić 23K. Sano 25S. Ouaissa

10T. Chery

20N. Lebreton 18K. Ogawa

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

NAC Breda Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

NEC Nijmegen Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

NAC Breda-0.6 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
NEC Nijmegen+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

NAC Breda · Home 1.22points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-4
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.11

NEC Nijmegen · Away 1.33points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-3
Scored: 2.22
Conceded: 1.89

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	NAC Breda	NEC Nijmegen
Groningen	D 0–0 AL 1–2 H	W 2–0 H
Telstar	L 0–1 H	D 2–2 A
Utrecht	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 A
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–1 A	W 3–1 H
Excelsior	L 0–1 A	W 5–0 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 0–1 H	L 3–5 H
FC Volendam	L 1–2 A	W 3–2 A
GO Ahead Eagles	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 A
Heerenveen	D 3–3 A	L 2–3 A
PEC Zwolle	D 2–2 H	D 2–2 A
Ajax	L 1–2 A	D 2–2 H
Heracles	W 2–1 H	W 4–1 A
Twente	D 2–2 A	D 3–3 H
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–1 H	W 2–1 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–1 H	L 2–3 A
Feyenoord	L 0–2 A	W 4–2 A
Points	14 of 51 · 0.82 per game	26 of 48 · 1.63 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 NAC Breda wins0 draws2 NEC Nijmegen wins

Goals per game0.33 – 2.00 Over 2.567% Both scored0% Clean sheets33% · 67%

24 Aug 2025NEC Nijmegen3–0NAC Breda
14 May 2025NEC Nijmegen3–0NAC Breda
5 Oct 2024NAC Breda1–0NEC Nijmegen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	NAC Breda	NEC Nijmegen	Forecast
Scored per game	0.89	2.53
Conceded per game	1.44	1.71
Match goals	2.33	4.24	2.93
Over 1.5	61%	94%
Over 2.5	50%	82%	56%
Over 3.5	17%	71%
Both teams scored	50%	76%	58%
Clean sheets	11%	18%
Failed to score	44%	6%
Games	18	17

	NAC Breda	NEC Nijmegen	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	2.20
Conceded per game	1.20	1.60
Match goals	2.00	3.80	2.93
Over 1.5	40%	90%
Over 2.5	30%	70%	56%
Over 3.5	20%	70%
Both teams scored	40%	80%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	50%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	NAC Breda	NEC Nijmegen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	5.35
Corners conceded	3.72	4.35
Match total	9.05	9.70	10.24
Over 8.5	56% 10/18	65% 11/17
Over 9.5	39% 7/18	53% 9/17
Over 10.5	39% 7/18	47% 8/17
Cards
Cards	1.94	2.00
Opponent cards	2.11	2.35
Match total	4.05	4.35	3.55
Over 3.5	56% 10/18	59% 10/17
Over 4.5	44% 8/18	59% 10/17

	NAC Breda	NEC Nijmegen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.90	5.10
Corners conceded	3.30	5.10
Match total	9.20	10.20	10.24
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.30
Opponent cards	2.00	1.60
Match total	3.80	3.90	3.55
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Erwin Blank Netherlands · 22 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.23league 3.33

Red cards0.05league 0.21

Cards 5+14%league 31%

Fouls21.8league 21.6

Penalties0.09league 0.29

Home wins45%league 46%

NAC Breda2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 0.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L14 May 25A · NEC Nijmegen0–30
L1 Mar 25A · Utrecht0–13

NEC Nijmegen6 with this referee

Record2-2-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 1

D25 Oct 25A · PEC Zwolle2–21
L31 Aug 25A · Fortuna Sittard2–31
W14 May 25H · NAC Breda3–00
D29 Mar 25H · AZ Alkmaar3–33
W9 Nov 24A · Waalwijk3–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.