Nantes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
LE Havre were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nantes. Nantes had 8.8 days of rest, LE Havre 7.1 and had to travel 281 km.
Away travel281 kmRest days8.8 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Nantes39%
Draw28%
LE Havre33%
Nantes36%
Draw27%
LE Havre36%
Nantes38%
Draw29%
LE Havre33%
Nantes32%
Draw28%
LE Havre40%
Nantes39%
Draw28%
LE Havre33%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nantes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 96
Team strength
Nantes
LE Havre
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
24
AttackIn forecast
20
45
DefenceIn forecast
22
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NantesLE Havre
0.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.91
1.82
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.23
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
64%
Scored inContext
59%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
10.05
ShotsContext
10.55
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.76
28%
On target shareContext
34%
6.14
Shots in the boxContext
6.18
59%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.87
OffsidesContext
1.88
14.05
Shots allowedContext
11.95
4.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.39
BlocksContext
3.85
3.19
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
66%
Save rateContext
68%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
369
PassesContext
369
299
Accurate passesContext
299
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.77
FoulsContext
12.91
13.23
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.77
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.09
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
80%
Scored inContext
40%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.40
ShotsContext
9.80
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
31%
On target shareContext
38%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
64%
Box shareContext
56%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.71
11.70
Shots allowedContext
15.10
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.38
BlocksContext
4.60
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
58%
Save rateContext
75%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
390
PassesContext
340
319
Accurate passesContext
268
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.70
FoulsContext
11.70
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nantes
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,598 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
LE Havre
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel281 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nantes |
LE Havre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 13 Feb | 7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 281 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,598 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nantes
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
3N. Cozza
2Ali Yusuf
6C. Awaziem
27D. Machado
66L. Leroux
21M. Kaba
8J. Lepenant
18F. Centonze
37I. Ganago
19Y. El-Arabi
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
99M. Diaw(G)
18Y. Zouaoui
4G. Lloris
32T. Pembélé
7L. Nego
14R. Ndiaye
19L. Gourna-Douath
26S. Ebonog
17S. Boufal
45I. Soumaré
13F. Doucouré
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nantes
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
LE Havre
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nantes+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- LE Havre-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Nantes · Home
0.45points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-8
- Scored
- 0.91
- Conceded
- 2.00
LE Havre · Away
0.60points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-6
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Nantes | LE Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Monaco | L 1–3 AL 3–5 H | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Lyon | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lorient | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Nice | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Paris FC | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Marseille | W 2–0 A | L 2–6 A |
| Angers | L 1–4 A | W 2–1 H |
| Lens | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Metz | L 0–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Lille | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Toulouse | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Rennes | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Strasbourg | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 13 of 63 · 0.62 per game | 25 of 63 · 1.19 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Nantes wins2 draws2 LE Havre wins
Goals per game0.80 – 1.20
Over 2.520%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 40%
- 8 Nov 2025LE Havre1–1Nantes
- 30 Mar 2025LE Havre3–2Nantes
- 24 Nov 2024Nantes0–2LE Havre
- 14 Apr 2024LE Havre0–1Nantes
- 26 Nov 2023Nantes0–0LE Havre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nantes | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.91 | 0.91 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.82 | 1.23 | |
| Match goals | 2.73 | 2.14 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 55% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 41% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 41% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Nantes | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 1.70 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nantes | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.24 | 4.55 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.86 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 9.35 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 14/21 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 10/21 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 9/21 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.05 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.45 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.13 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 15/22 | 68% 15/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 10/22 | 32% 7/22 | |
| Nantes | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.78 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 7.56 | 10.20 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.90 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 96 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.31league 3.65
Red cards0.31league 0.30
Cards 5+53%league 36%
Fouls22.5league 24.1
Penalties0.39league 0.39
Home wins43%league 49%
Nantes11 with this referee
Record0-6-5
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4
Pens for · against3 · 2
- D22 Apr 25H · Paris Saint Germain1–12
- L7 Feb 25H · Stade Brestois 290–23
- D4 Jan 25A · Lille1–12
- L16 Mar 24H · Strasbourg1–32
- D28 Jan 24A · Reims0–02
LE Havre6 with this referee
Record3-2-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds2
- D5 Oct 25H · Rennes2–21
- W4 May 25A · Auxerre2–11
- W1 Mar 25A · Lens4–32
- D2 Feb 25A · Angers1–15
- L17 Feb 24A · Lille0–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nantes22 games · scored 20 · conceded 40
3
4
0-15
1
8
16-30
7
6
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
13
76-90
LE Havre22 games · scored 20 · conceded 27
1
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
6
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
5
61-75
5
7
76-90
Nantes10 games · scored 9 · conceded 22
1
0-15
7
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
7
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
