Nantes vs Marseille – 2 May 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 32 Sat, May 2 · 14:00 Stade de la Beaujoire – Louis Fonteneau, Nantes

Nantes 17th · 20 pts · 31 played DDDLL

3–0Full time

Marseille 6th · 53 pts · 31 played LLWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Marseille were slight favourites.

Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nantes. Nantes had 5.9 days of rest, Marseille 5.8 and had to travel 696 km.

Away travel696 kmRest days5.9 · 5.8Matches / 14d3 · 2

Nantes30%

Draw26%

Marseille44%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.54

Nantes22%

Draw25%

Marseille54%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.74

Nantes28%

Draw27%

Marseille45%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.52

Nantes24%

Draw25%

Marseille51%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.72

Nantes31%

Draw26%

Marseille43%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.53

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nantes)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 100

Team strength

Nantes

Marseille

17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52

19 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

24 AttackIn forecast 48

45 DefenceIn forecast 46

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nantes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Marseille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nantes

Marseille

0.84 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.65 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.32

0.96 xGVia Att/Def 1.67

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.23

58% Scored inContext 77%

19% Clean sheetsContext 26%

10.52 ShotsContext 14.39

3.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.35

30% On target shareContext 37%

6.87 Shots in the boxContext 9.06

62% Box shareContext 63%

8% ConversionContext 13%

1.73 OffsidesContext 1.57

13.03 Shots allowedContext 9.81

4.76 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

4.12 BlocksContext 2.50

3.21 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.73

67% Save rateContext 68%

42% PossessionIn forecast 57%

344 PassesContext 543

274 Accurate passesContext 481

80% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.91

12.19 FoulsContext 12.16

13.71 Fouls sufferedContext 10.10

2.03 Yellow cardsContext 2.26

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.52

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

-0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.22

50% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.80 ShotsContext 15.60

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

32% On target shareContext 33%

8.78 Shots in the boxContext 9.80

69% Box shareContext 63%

6% ConversionContext 8%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.70 Shots allowedContext 9.60

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

3.44 BlocksContext 1.70

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.20

65% Save rateContext 63%

38% PossessionIn forecast 56%

299 PassesContext 499

230 Accurate passesContext 432

77% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.81

12.70 FoulsContext 11.70

14.90 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.90

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nantes

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km884 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Marseille

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel696 km1,684 km in 14d

Schedule load11%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nantes	Marseille
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 11
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Apr	5.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	696 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	884 km	1,684 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	8.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nantes Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30P. Carlgren(G)

27D. Machado 3N. Cozza 6C. Awaziem 24F. Guilbert

28I. Sissoko 8J. Lepenant

20R. Cabella 21M. Kaba 10M. Abline

37I. Ganago

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Marseille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12J. de Lange(G)

33Emerson 32F. Medina 5L. Balerdi 6Tochukwu Nnadi

23P. Højbjerg 18A. Vermeeren

20H. Traorè 27Q. Timber 10M. Greenwood

17P. Aubameyang

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nantes Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Marseille Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nantes+1.9 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Marseille-1.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Nantes · Home 0.60points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 2-3-10
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.80

Marseille · Away 1.27points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 6-1-8
Scored: 1.40
Conceded: 1.47

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Nantes	Marseille
Rennes	L 1–2 AD 2–2 H	L 0–1 A
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H	L 0–5 AW 1–0 H
Stade Brestois 29	D 1–1 HD 0–0 A	L 0–2 AW 3–0 H
Auxerre	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A
Metz	D 0–0 AL 0–2 H	W 3–1 HW 3–0 A
Strasbourg	L 2–3 HL 0–1 A	D 2–2 HW 2–1 A
Angers	L 0–1 HL 1–4 A	W 5–2 AD 2–2 H
Lille	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	L 1–2 HL 0–1 A
LE Havre	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A	W 6–2 H
Monaco	L 1–3 AL 3–5 H	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H
Lyon	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A	W 3–2 HL 0–1 A
Lorient	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	L 0–2 AW 4–0 H
Nice	L 1–4 HL 0–1 A	D 1–1 HW 5–1 A
Paris FC	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A	D 2–2 AW 5–2 H
Lens	L 1–2 H	W 3–1 HL 1–2 A
Toulouse	D 2–2 A	W 1–0 AD 2–2 H
Points	17 of 90 · 0.57 per game	53 of 90 · 1.77 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

1 Nantes wins1 draws7 Marseille wins

Goals per game0.78 – 1.67 Over 2.533% Both scored44% Clean sheets11% · 44%

4 Jan 2026Marseille0–2Nantes
2 Mar 2025Marseille2–0Nantes
3 Nov 2024Nantes1–2Marseille
10 Mar 2024Marseille2–0Nantes
1 Sep 2023Nantes1–1Marseille
1 Feb 2023Nantes0–2Marseille

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nantes	Marseille	Forecast
Scored per game	0.84	1.90
Conceded per game	1.65	1.32
Match goals	2.48	3.23	2.76
Over 1.5	68%	74%
Over 2.5	45%	61%	52%
Over 3.5	23%	42%
Both teams scored	48%	52%	56%
Clean sheets	19%	26%
Failed to score	42%	23%
Games	31	31

	Nantes	Marseille	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.30
Conceded per game	1.40	1.40
Match goals	2.10	2.70	2.76
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	52%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	56%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nantes	Marseille	League
Corners
Corners won	3.34	4.93
Corners conceded	5.59	3.48
Match total	8.93	8.41	9.17
Over 8.5	62% 18/29	41% 12/29
Over 9.5	45% 13/29	28% 8/29
Over 10.5	41% 12/29	21% 6/29
Cards
Cards	2.13	2.42
Opponent cards	2.35	1.65
Match total	4.48	4.07	3.96
Over 3.5	71% 22/31	65% 20/31
Over 4.5	45% 14/31	45% 14/31

	Nantes	Marseille	League
Corners
Corners won	3.56	5.56
Corners conceded	5.33	2.78
Match total	8.89	8.34	9.17
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.90
Opponent cards	2.40	1.70
Match total	4.70	4.60	3.96
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 100 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.31league 3.69

Red cards0.31league 0.27

Cards 5+53%league 36%

Fouls22.5league 23.7

Penalties0.38league 0.38

Home wins44%league 47%

Nantes12 with this referee

Record1-6-5 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.4 Pens for · against4 · 2

W22 Feb 26H · LE Havre2–04
D22 Apr 25H · Paris Saint Germain1–12
L7 Feb 25H · Stade Brestois 290–23
D4 Jan 25A · Lille1–12
L16 Mar 24H · Strasbourg1–32

Marseille16 with this referee

Record10-4-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3 Pens for · against7 · 3 Reds4

D31 Jan 26A · Paris FC2–24
W21 Nov 25A · Nice5–12
W26 Sep 25A · Strasbourg2–14
L15 Aug 25A · Rennes0–13
W17 May 25H · Rennes4–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.