Nantes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Nice were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 20). Absences weigh more on Nice. Nantes had 6.9 days of rest, Nice 2.8 and had to travel 790 km.
Away travel790 kmRest days6.9 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Nantes38%
Draw27%
Nice35%
Nantes36%
Draw27%
Nice36%
Nantes36%
Draw28%
Nice36%
Nantes31%
Draw27%
Nice42%
Nantes38%
Draw27%
Nice35%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nantes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceHakim Ben el Salem Hadj
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.56
- Matches 9
Team strength
Nantes
Nice
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
24
AttackIn forecast
26
45
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NantesNice
0.94
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.94
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
61%
Scored inContext
78%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
9.22
ShotsContext
11.33
3.19
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
31%
On target shareContext
36%
5.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.29
57%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.80
15.33
Shots allowedContext
15.11
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.56
4.69
BlocksContext
4.50
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.82
68%
Save rateContext
66%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
355
PassesContext
423
286
Accurate passesContext
357
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.72
FoulsContext
12.44
13.33
Fouls sufferedContext
12.06
1.72
Yellow cardsContext
2.06
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.51
80%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.30
ShotsContext
12.50
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
38%
On target shareContext
32%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
58%
Box shareContext
69%
13%
ConversionContext
6%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.71
14.40
Shots allowedContext
12.30
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.89
BlocksContext
2.50
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
60%
Save rateContext
57%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
342
PassesContext
435
275
Accurate passesContext
370
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.63
12.50
FoulsContext
12.00
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nantes
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nice
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel790 km937 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nantes |
Nice |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 790 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 937 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nantes
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
3N. Cozza
78Tylel Tati
6C. Awaziem
98K. Amian
80J. Mwanga
28I. Sissoko
20R. Cabella
10M. Abline
31M. Abdalla
8J. Lepenant
Nice
Confirmed XI
31M. Dupé(G)
2A. Abdi
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
28A. Bah
92J. Clauss
99S. Abdul Samed
24C. Vanhoutte
10S. Diop
8M. Sanson
25M. Cho
11S. Wahi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nantes
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nice
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nantes+1.6 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Nice-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Nantes · Home
0.56points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.89
Nice · Away
0.44points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-7
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.56
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Nantes | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Marseille | W 2–0 A | L 1–5 H |
| Angers | L 1–4 A | L 0–1 H |
| Lens | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Lyon | L 0–3 A | W 3–2 H |
| Lorient | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| LE Havre | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Metz | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Monaco | L 3–5 H | D 2–2 A |
| Lille | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 0–0 A | L 1–4 A |
| Toulouse | D 2–2 A | L 1–5 AL 0–1 H |
| Rennes | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Strasbourg | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 14 of 51 · 0.82 per game | 15 of 51 · 0.88 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Nantes wins3 draws3 Nice wins
Goals per game1.11 – 1.22
Over 2.544%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets11% · 22%
- 13 Sep 2025Nice1–0Nantes
- 4 Apr 2025Nice1–2Nantes
- 20 Oct 2024Nantes1–1Nice
- 31 Mar 2024Nice1–2Nantes
- 2 Dec 2023Nantes1–0Nice
- 12 Mar 2023Nantes2–2Nice
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nantes | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.94 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.94 | |
| Match goals | 2.61 | 3.11 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 56% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 39% | 22% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Nantes | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.20 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nantes | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.06 | 4.82 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.29 | 5.76 | |
| Match total | 9.35 | 10.58 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 12/17 | 82% 14/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 9/17 | 71% 12/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 8/17 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 1.78 | |
| Match total | 3.95 | 3.95 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 11/18 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 6/18 | 33% 6/18 | |
| Nantes | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.56 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 8.23 | 10.20 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.90 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj France · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.78league 3.61
Red cards0.33league 0.33
Cards 5+11%league 35%
Fouls22.4league 24.2
Penalties0.56league 0.43
Home wins56%league 50%
NantesNo previous matches with this referee.
Nice2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L7 Dec 25H · Angers0–12
- W17 May 25H · Stade Brestois 296–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nantes18 games · scored 17 · conceded 30
3
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
4
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
11
76-90
Nice18 games · scored 21 · conceded 35
3
7
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
6
31-45
5
7
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
8
76-90
Nantes10 games · scored 12 · conceded 21
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
4
9
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 8 · conceded 24
2
5
0-15
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
3
6
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
