Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain – 17 Aug 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 17 · 19:45 Stade de la Beaujoire – Louis Fonteneau, Nantes

Nantes

0–1Full time

Paris Saint Germain

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.

Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 24). Paris Saint Germain usually keep the ball (65% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Nantes had ? days of rest, Paris Saint Germain ? and had to travel 342 km.

Away travel342 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Nantes8%

Draw15%

Paris Saint Germain77%

Expected goals 0.72 – 2.55

Nantes9%

Draw16%

Paris Saint Germain75%

Expected goals 0.73 – 2.46

Nantes8%

Draw15%

Paris Saint Germain77%

Expected goals 0.72 – 2.55

Nantes5%

Draw12%

Paris Saint Germain82%

Expected goals 0.64 – 2.86

Nantes9%

Draw16%

Paris Saint Germain75%

Expected goals 0.73 – 2.46

Over 2.5 63% Both score 48% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nantes)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 99

Team strength

Nantes

Paris Saint Germain

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 88

19 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

24 AttackIn forecast 91

45 DefenceIn forecast 83

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nantes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nantes

Paris Saint Germain

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

0.88 xGVia Att/Def 2.14

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08

+0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

70% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

8.70 ShotsContext 16.60

2.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.40

30% On target shareContext 45%

5.33 Shots in the boxContext 11.50

60% Box shareContext 71%

13% ConversionContext 13%

1.20 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.40 Shots allowedContext 9.70

4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.30

3.60 BlocksContext 2.80

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86

70% Save rateContext 71%

40% PossessionIn forecast 64%

361 PassesContext 606

296 Accurate passesContext 548

82% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.97 Team ratingContext 7.18

11.50 FoulsContext 9.70

13.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nantes

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Paris Saint Germain

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel342 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nantes	Paris Saint Germain
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	342 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nantes Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1A. Lopes(G)

3N. Cozza 78Tylel Tati 6C. Awaziem 98K. Amian

5H. Kwon

11B. Guirassy 8J. Lepenant 66L. Leroux 90Y. Benhattab

31M. Abdalla

Paris Saint Germain Confirmed XI

4-3-3

30L. Chevalier(G)

21L. Hernández 4Beraldo 6I. Zabarnyi 33W. Zaïre-Emery

8Fabián Ruiz 17Vitinha 19K. Lee

29B. Barcola 9Gonçalo Ramos 49I. Mbaye

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nantes Absences are shown before kick-off

Paris Saint Germain Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nantes+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Paris Saint Germain+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Nantes · Home No home games yet this season.

Paris Saint Germain · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Nantes wins2 draws5 Paris Saint Germain wins

Goals per game1.13 – 2.13 Over 2.563% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%

22 Apr 2025Nantes1–1Paris Saint Germain
30 Nov 2024Paris Saint Germain1–1Nantes
17 Feb 2024Nantes0–2Paris Saint Germain
9 Dec 2023Paris Saint Germain2–1Nantes
4 Mar 2023Paris Saint Germain4–2Nantes
3 Sep 2022Nantes0–3Paris Saint Germain

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nantes	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.27
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	63%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	48%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Nantes	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.27
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	63%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	48%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nantes	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.13
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.13
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Nantes	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	3.40	3.67
Corners conceded	6.10	4.11
Match total	9.50	7.78	10.13
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	0% 0/9
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.20
Opponent cards	2.00	1.80
Match total	4.30	3.00	4.13
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 99 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.30league 3.88

Red cards0.20league 0.25

Cards 5+47%league 50%

Fouls25.0league 25.3

Penalties0.38league 0.13

Home wins54%league 50%

Nantes5 with this referee

Record1-2-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.6 Pens for · against0 · 1

D26 Jan 25H · Lyon1–13
L20 Dec 23A · Lyon0–12
L7 May 23H · Strasbourg0–23
W1 Jan 23H · Auxerre1–01
D30 Oct 22H · Clermont Foot1–10

Paris Saint Germain14 with this referee

Record10-2-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.7 Pens for · against5 · 1 Reds2

W1 Feb 25A · Stade Brestois 295–20
W15 Dec 24H · Lyon3–12
W1 Sep 24A · Lille3–12
W31 Mar 24A · Marseille2–05
W24 Nov 23H · Monaco5–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.