Napoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were clear favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 26). Napoli usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Napoli had 7.1 days of rest, Cagliari 6.1 and had to travel 474 km.
Away travel474 kmRest days7.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Napoli72%
Draw19%
Cagliari10%
Napoli72%
Draw18%
Cagliari10%
Napoli72%
Draw19%
Cagliari10%
Napoli65%
Draw22%
Cagliari13%
Napoli72%
Draw18%
Cagliari10%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Napoli)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Bonacina
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 4
Team strength
Napoli
Cagliari
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
61
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
61
AttackIn forecast
31
70
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NapoliCagliari
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
0.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
90%
Scored inContext
80%
70%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.10
ShotsContext
9.30
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
36%
On target shareContext
33%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
66%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.90
Shots allowedContext
10.80
2.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.80
BlocksContext
3.40
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.89
84%
Save rateContext
59%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
512
PassesContext
340
448
Accurate passesContext
267
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.15
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.30
FoulsContext
12.30
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Napoli
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,041 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cagliari
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel474 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Napoli |
Cagliari |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 474 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,041 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 13.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Napoli
Confirmed XI
1A. Meret(G)
37L. Spinazzola
5Juan Jesus
13A. Rrahmani
22G. Di Lorenzo
68S. Lobotka
8S. McTominay
11K. De Bruyne
99F. Anguissa
21M. Politano
27L. Lucca
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
6S. Luperto
26Y. Mina
28G. Zappa
33A. Obert
14A. Deiola
16M. Prati
8M. Adopo
2M. Palestra
94S. Esposito
90M. Folorunsho
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Napoli
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cagliari
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Napoli+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Cagliari+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Napoli · Home
No home games yet this season.
Cagliari · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 Napoli wins2 draws0 Cagliari wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.50
Over 2.533%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 23 May 2025Napoli2–0Cagliari
- 15 Sep 2024Cagliari0–4Napoli
- 25 Feb 2024Cagliari1–1Napoli
- 16 Dec 2023Napoli2–1Cagliari
- 21 Feb 2022Cagliari1–1Napoli
- 26 Sep 2021Napoli2–0Cagliari
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Napoli | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Napoli | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Napoli | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 5.00 | 8.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 4.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Napoli | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.23 | 8.50 | 8.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Bonacina 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.93
Red cards0.25league 0.14
Cards 5+25%league 50%
Fouls24.3league 24.7
Penalties0.50league 0.14
Home wins25%league 43%
NapoliNo previous matches with this referee.
Cagliari1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Jan 25A · Torino0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Napoli1 games · scored 2 · conceded 0
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Cagliari1 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 16 · conceded 4
3
0-15
5
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
