Napoli vs Cremonese – 24 Apr 2026

Serie A Gameweek 34 Fri, Apr 24 · 19:45 Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli

Napoli 3rd · 66 pts · 33 played WWWDL

4–0Full time

Cremonese 17th · 28 pts · 33 played LWLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Napoli were clear favourites.

Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cremonese. Napoli had 6.1 days of rest, Cremonese 5.3 and had to travel 588 km.

Away travel588 kmRest days6.1 · 5.3Matches / 14d2 · 2

Napoli65%

Draw23%

Cremonese12%

Expected goals 1.84 – 0.66

Napoli76%

Draw16%

Cremonese8%

Expected goals 2.49 – 0.72

Napoli65%

Draw23%

Cremonese12%

Expected goals 1.84 – 0.66

Napoli58%

Draw26%

Cremonese16%

Expected goals 1.64 – 0.74

Napoli66%

Draw22%

Cremonese12%

Expected goals 1.93 – 0.71

Over 2.5 46% Both score 41% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Napoli)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 82

Team strength

Napoli

Cremonese

68 L90 StrengthIn forecast 19

61 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

61 AttackIn forecast 16

70 DefenceIn forecast 30

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Napoli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Cremonese

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Napoli

Cremonese

1.45 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.79

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.42

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 0.91

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

79% Scored inContext 52%

33% Clean sheetsContext 27%

12.73 ShotsContext 8.79

4.87 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.22

36% On target shareContext 36%

8.15 Shots in the boxContext 5.65

63% Box shareContext 60%

11% ConversionContext 9%

1.78 OffsidesContext 2.17

10.27 Shots allowedContext 15.52

3.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.31

3.00 BlocksContext 4.50

2.21 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.94

67% Save rateContext 75%

59% PossessionIn forecast 46%

545 PassesContext 369

474 Accurate passesContext 289

87% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.73

11.64 FoulsContext 13.48

12.12 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

1.36 Yellow cardsContext 1.91

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 0.86

0.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

+0.37 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

90% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.40 ShotsContext 9.70

5.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.56

38% On target shareContext 33%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.22

63% Box shareContext 69%

12% ConversionContext 6%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.86

8.90 Shots allowedContext 14.60

3.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.11

2.13 BlocksContext 4.20

2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

64% Save rateContext 70%

63% PossessionIn forecast 48%

580 PassesContext 358

511 Accurate passesContext 282

88% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.75

10.80 FoulsContext 14.20

9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Napoli

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,088 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Cremonese

Rest5.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel588 km1,321 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Napoli	Cremonese
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Apr	5.3Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	588 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,088 km	1,321 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	9.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Napoli Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

32V. Milinković-Savić(G)

4A. Buongiorno 13A. Rrahmani 17M. Olivera

3Miguel Gutiérrez 8S. McTominay 68S. Lobotka 21M. Politano

27Alisson Santos 11K. De Bruyne

19R. Højlund

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Cremonese Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1E. Audero(G)

3G. Pezzella 5S. Luperto 6F. Baschirotto 24F. Terracciano

32M. Payero 29Y. Maleh 38W. Bondo 22R. Floriani Mussolini

90F. Bonazzoli 77D. Okereke

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Napoli Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Cremonese Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Napoli+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Cremonese+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Napoli · Home 2.31points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 11-4-1
Scored: 1.63
Conceded: 0.94

Cremonese · Away 0.88points per game · 17 away games

W-D-L: 4-3-10
Scored: 0.76
Conceded: 1.41

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Napoli	Cremonese
Lazio	L 0–2 HW 2–0 A	D 0–0 A
Parma	D 1–1 AD 0–0 H	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H
AC Milan	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A	L 0–2 HW 2–1 A
Cagliari	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H	L 0–1 AD 2–2 H
Lecce	W 2–1 HW 1–0 A	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H
Torino	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Verona	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A
Atalanta	L 1–2 AW 3–1 H	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
AS Roma	D 2–2 HW 1–0 A	L 0–3 AL 1–3 H
Genoa	W 3–2 AW 2–1 H	D 0–0 HW 2–0 A
Fiorentina	W 2–1 HW 3–1 A	L 1–4 HL 0–1 A
Juventus	L 0–3 AW 2–1 H	L 0–5 AL 1–2 H
Sassuolo	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A	L 0–1 AW 3–2 H
Inter	D 2–2 AW 3–1 H	L 0–2 HL 1–4 A
Udinese	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Bologna	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 HW 3–1 A
Como	D 0–0 H	D 1–1 A
Pisa	W 3–2 H	L 0–1 A
Points	63 of 96 · 1.97 per game	28 of 96 · 0.88 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

3 Napoli wins0 draws0 Cremonese wins

Goals per game3.00 – 0.33 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets67% · 0%

28 Dec 2025Cremonese0–2Napoli
12 Feb 2023Napoli3–0Cremonese
9 Oct 2022Cremonese1–4Napoli

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Napoli	Cremonese	Forecast
Scored per game	1.45	0.79
Conceded per game	1.00	1.42
Match goals	2.45	2.21	2.50
Over 1.5	70%	67%
Over 2.5	52%	39%	46%
Over 3.5	24%	21%
Both teams scored	52%	42%	41%
Clean sheets	33%	27%
Failed to score	21%	48%
Games	33	33

	Napoli	Cremonese	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	0.60
Conceded per game	1.20	1.60
Match goals	2.70	2.20	2.50
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	46%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	41%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	10%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Napoli	Cremonese	League
Corners
Corners won	4.87	3.32
Corners conceded	2.93	6.32
Match total	7.80	9.64	8.70
Over 8.5	30% 9/30	61% 19/31
Over 9.5	20% 6/30	42% 13/31
Over 10.5	20% 6/30	26% 8/31
Cards
Cards	1.45	1.97
Opponent cards	1.94	1.55
Match total	3.39	3.52	3.89
Over 3.5	39% 13/33	39% 13/33
Over 4.5	15% 5/33	24% 8/33

	Napoli	Cremonese	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	3.22
Corners conceded	3.00	6.89
Match total	8.00	10.11	8.70
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.50
Opponent cards	1.80	1.40
Match total	3.40	2.90	3.89
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 82 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.27league 3.72

Red cards0.20league 0.19

Cards 5+26%league 35%

Fouls24.6league 24.8

Penalties0.21league 0.29

Home wins26%league 40%

Napoli12 with this referee

Record5-5-2 Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.6 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds2

W6 Apr 26H · AC Milan1–02
D11 Jan 26A · Inter2–22
D18 May 25A · Parma0–04
D1 Mar 25H · Inter1–11
W14 Dec 24A · Udinese3–11

Cremonese3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L11 Apr 26A · Cagliari0–11
D30 Apr 23H · Verona1–11
W8 Apr 23A · Sampdoria3–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.