Napoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were clear favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 29). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Frosinone. Napoli were without S. McTominay and A. Buongiorno. Frosinone were without A. Raimondo. Napoli had 20.3 days of rest, Frosinone 20.2 and had to travel 117 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel117 kmRest days20.3 · 20.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Napoli64%
Draw20%
Frosinone16%
Napoli67%
Draw19%
Frosinone14%
Napoli66%
Draw19%
Frosinone15%
Napoli56%
Draw23%
Frosinone21%
Napoli63%
Draw20%
Frosinone16%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Napoli)
18°CLight rain
- Precipitation 0.4 mm
- Wind 2 km/h
- Humidity 89%
Referee · ItalyErmanno Feliciani
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 42
Team strength
Napoli
Frosinone
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
61
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
61
AttackIn forecast
41
70
DefenceIn forecast
25
39
Form indexContext
71
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFrosinone
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NapoliFrosinone
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
0.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.02
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
100%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.80
ShotsContext
16.60
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
29%
On target shareContext
31%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.20
69%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.20
16.60
Shots allowedContext
20.60
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
5.00
BlocksContext
6.40
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
73%
Save rateContext
81%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
476
PassesContext
276
416
Accurate passesContext
198
87%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.97
9.20
FoulsContext
15.80
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
0.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.02
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
80%
Scored inContext
60%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.00
ShotsContext
16.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
33%
On target shareContext
32%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
64%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.70
OffsidesContext
2.57
14.90
Shots allowedContext
16.50
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.63
BlocksContext
5.10
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
71%
Save rateContext
83%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
513
PassesContext
305
454
Accurate passesContext
228
89%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.98
8.60
FoulsContext
12.60
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Napoli
LLLWD
Rest20.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 4 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -2.4 vs expected
Frosinone
LWWDW
Rest20.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel117 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 71 · 10 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +4.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Napoli |
Frosinone |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.3Serie A 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 20.2Serie A 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 117 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Napoli
Confirmed XI
1A. Meret(G)
5B. Badiashile
13A. Rrahmani
16Rafa Marín
37L. Spinazzola
68S. Lobotka
11K. De Bruyne
22G. Di Lorenzo
70N. Lang
7David Neres
19R. Højlund
Frosinone
Confirmed XI
22L. Palmisani(G)
79G. Bracaglia
2G. Cittadini
3G. Calvani
20A. Oyono
14Giacomo Calò
73P. Masini
17G. Kvernadze
10R. Schmid
7F. Ghedjemis
9A. Raimondo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Napoli
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −33.9% · Defence line −33.1% of weighted minutes
- MID S. McTominay Starter 7.11 Att −10.7% Def −6.7%
- DEF A. Buongiorno Starter 6.66 Def −12.5%
- ATT Alisson Santos Starter 7.03 Att −16.0%
- DEF L. Spinazzola Rotation 6.82 Def −4.8%
- DEF M. Olivera Rotation 6.78 Def −3.8%
- MID F. Anguissa Rotation 6.69 Att −2.1% Def −1.3%
Frosinone
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals
Attack line −18.0% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes
- ATT A. Raimondo Starter 7.11 Att −17.8%
- ATT D. Bîrligea Depth 6.51 Att −0.2%
- MID F. Grillitsch Depth 6.30
Total impact vs full squads
- Napoli-2.2 pp
- Draw+0.9 pp
- Frosinone+1.4 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Napoli · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Frosinone · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Napoli | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Como | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Genoa | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Napoli wins1 draws0 Frosinone wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 14 Apr 2024Napoli2–2Frosinone
- 19 Aug 2023Frosinone1–3Napoli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Napoli | Frosinone | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.60 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Napoli | Frosinone | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.60 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Napoli | Frosinone | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 7.60 | |
| Match total | 10.75 | 13.60 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 2.20 | 5.20 | 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Napoli | Frosinone | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 6.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 12.00 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.00 | 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ermanno Feliciani Italy · 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.95league 3.29
Red cards0.02league 0.02
Cards 5+14%league 25%
Fouls22.9league 22.1
Penalties0.26league 0.12
Home wins55%league 46%
Napoli2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W4 Oct 24H · Como3–11
- W4 Jun 23H · Sampdoria2–00
Frosinone2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L11 Feb 24A · Fiorentina1–51
- L29 Dec 23A · Lazio1–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Napoli5 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Frosinone5 games · scored 9 · conceded 4
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Frosinone10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
