Napoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were slight favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 40). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Udinese. Napoli had 7.3 days of rest, Udinese 6.9 and had to travel 586 km.
Away travel586 kmRest days7.3 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Napoli51%
Draw27%
Udinese22%
Napoli60%
Draw23%
Udinese17%
Napoli51%
Draw27%
Udinese22%
Napoli43%
Draw28%
Udinese28%
Napoli51%
Draw26%
Udinese23%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Napoli)
No weather data yet
RefereeA. Zanotti
Team strength
Napoli
Udinese
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
61
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
61
AttackIn forecast
22
70
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUdinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NapoliUdinese
1.54
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
0.97
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.27
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
78%
Scored inContext
73%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.89
ShotsContext
11.14
4.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.86
36%
On target shareContext
34%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.71
63%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.85
OffsidesContext
2.07
10.11
Shots allowedContext
12.86
3.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.12
2.88
BlocksContext
3.59
2.31
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.79
69%
Save rateContext
66%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
545
PassesContext
364
475
Accurate passesContext
296
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.24
FoulsContext
13.27
12.03
Fouls sufferedContext
11.35
1.32
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
0.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
80%
Scored inContext
60%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.80
ShotsContext
11.40
5.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
34%
On target shareContext
38%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
64%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.57
8.40
Shots allowedContext
15.40
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.00
BlocksContext
4.30
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
74%
Save rateContext
75%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
589
PassesContext
392
529
Accurate passesContext
330
90%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.91
9.40
FoulsContext
11.70
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Napoli
Rest7.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km899 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Udinese
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel586 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Napoli |
Udinese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.3Serie A 2025-2026, 17 May | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 586 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 899 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 90.1 | 90 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Napoli
Confirmed XI
1A. Meret(G)
17M. Olivera
13A. Rrahmani
22G. Di Lorenzo
3Miguel Gutiérrez
8S. McTominay
68S. Lobotka
21M. Politano
27Alisson Santos
19R. Højlund
20E. Elmas
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
28O. Solet
27C. Kabasele
31T. Kristensen
33J. Zemura
38L. Miller
8J. Karlström
19K. Ehizibue
14A. Atta
24J. Piotrowski
9K. Davis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Napoli
Absences are shown before kick-off
Udinese
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Napoli+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Udinese+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Napoli · Home
2.22points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 12-4-2
- Scored
- 1.78
- Conceded
- 1.00
Udinese · Away
1.50points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-3-7
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.44
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Napoli | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Pisa | W 3–0 AW 3–2 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Bologna | L 2–3 HL 0–2 A | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Como | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Cremonese | W 4–0 HW 2–0 A | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Lazio | L 0–2 HW 2–0 A | D 3–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Parma | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A |
| AC Milan | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A | W 3–0 AL 0–3 H |
| Cagliari | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Lecce | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Torino | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Verona | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H | W 3–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Atalanta | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| AS Roma | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Genoa | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A | W 3–0 HL 1–5 A |
| Juventus | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Sassuolo | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Inter | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Points | 73 of 108 · 2.03 per game | 47 of 108 · 1.31 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 Napoli wins3 draws1 Udinese wins
Goals per game2.11 – 1.00
Over 2.556%
Both scored78%
Clean sheets11% · 11%
- 14 Dec 2025Udinese1–0Napoli
- 9 Feb 2025Napoli1–1Udinese
- 14 Dec 2024Udinese1–3Napoli
- 6 May 2024Udinese1–1Napoli
- 27 Sep 2023Napoli4–1Udinese
- 4 May 2023Udinese1–1Napoli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Napoli | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.54 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.97 | 1.27 | |
| Match goals | 2.51 | 2.49 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 46% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 46% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 27% | |
| Games | 37 | 37 |
| Napoli | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.20 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Napoli | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.91 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.85 | 4.66 | |
| Match total | 7.76 | 9.26 | 8.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 10/34 | 49% 17/35 | |
| Over 9.5 | 21% 7/34 | 43% 15/35 | |
| Over 10.5 | 21% 7/34 | 37% 13/35 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.41 | 1.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.95 | 1.76 | |
| Match total | 3.36 | 3.65 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 41% 15/37 | 51% 19/37 | |
| Over 4.5 | 16% 6/37 | 30% 11/37 | |
| Napoli | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.11 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.56 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 9.60 | 8.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.50 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Napoli37 games · scored 57 · conceded 36
11
8
0-15
8
3
16-30
11
4
31-45
11
8
46-60
6
6
61-75
10
7
76-90
Udinese37 games · scored 45 · conceded 47
4
7
0-15
7
6
16-30
8
6
31-45
10
10
46-60
8
7
61-75
8
11
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
3
4
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
