UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round Play-off round Wed, Aug 19 · 20:00 Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen
1–3Full time
Bodo/Glimt
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,779 kmRest days4.2 · 8.1Matches / 14d3 · 1
Real contextStrength only
NEC Nijmegen—%
Draw—%
Bodo/Glimt—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Nijmegen)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier
  • Cards per match 4.3
  • Penalties per match 0.34
  • Matches 133

Team strength

NEC NijmegenBodo/Glimt
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
32 Current StrengthIn forecast 58
37 AttackIn forecast 61
33 DefenceIn forecast 64
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

NEC Nijmegen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Bodo/Glimt

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

NEC NijmegenBodo/Glimt
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
2.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.55
1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.11
-0.87 Goals minus xGContext +0.75
90% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 10%
18.70 ShotsContext 10.70
6.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20
33% On target shareContext 49%
11.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.22
63% Box shareContext 74%
8% ConversionContext 22%
2.78 OffsidesContext 2.50
9.70 Shots allowedContext 21.60
4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.70
2.78 BlocksContext 5.56
3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.67
76% Save rateContext 73%
58% PossessionIn forecast 44%
456 PassesContext 459
369 Accurate passesContext 378
81% Pass accuracyContext 82%
7.01 Team ratingContext 7.14
13.40 FoulsContext 8.67
11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

NEC Nijmegen
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km123 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 41 · 3 pts vs 4.0 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
  • W15 AugA · Willem II4–12.0 xPts
  • L8 AugH · Telstar1–22.0 xPts
Bodo/Glimt
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,779 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
NEC Nijmegen Bodo/Glimt
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 15 Aug8.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 11 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,779 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways123 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 40 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one66

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

NEC Nijmegen Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville 21T. Storm 2B. Pereira
99Clement Bischoff 20N. Lebreton 6D. Nejašmić 7E. Mor
10D. Tadić 9T. Chery
30B. Linssen
Bodo/Glimt Confirmed XI
4-3-3
12N. Haikin(G)
15F. Bjørkan 5H. Aleesami 4O. Bjørtuft 20F. Sjøvold
19S. Fet 7P. Berg 8S. Auklend
10J. Hauge 9A. Helmersen 11O. Blomberg

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
NEC Nijmegen Absences are shown before kick-off
Bodo/Glimt Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

NEC Nijmegen · Home No home games yet this season.
Bodo/Glimt · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

NEC NijmegenBodo/GlimtForecast
Scored per game ——
Conceded per game ——
Match goals ——
Over 1.5 ——
Over 2.5 ——
Over 3.5 ——
Both teams scored ——
Clean sheets ——
Failed to score ——
Games00
NEC NijmegenBodo/GlimtForecast
Scored per game 1.503.00
Conceded per game 1.002.50
Match goals 2.505.50
Over 1.5 90%100%
Over 2.5 50%100%
Over 3.5 10%100%
Both teams scored 80%100%
Clean sheets 20%0%
Failed to score 10%0%
Games102

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

NEC NijmegenBodo/GlimtLeague
Corners
Corners won——
Corners conceded——
Match total——7.50
Over 8.5——
Over 9.5——
Over 10.5——
Cards
Cards——
Opponent cards——
Match total——1.00
Over 3.5——
Over 4.5——
NEC NijmegenBodo/GlimtLeague
Corners
Corners won6.223.89
Corners conceded2.898.78
Match total9.1112.677.50
Over 8.544% 4/989% 8/9
Over 9.544% 4/978% 7/9
Over 10.522% 2/978% 7/9
Cards
Cards1.501.40
Opponent cards2.102.40
Match total3.603.801.00
Over 3.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · François Letexier France · 133 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 1.67
Red cards0.25league 0.00
Cards 5+44%league 0%
Fouls22.2league 24.3
Penalties0.34league 0.00
Home wins51%league 0%
NEC Nijmegen

No previous matches with this referee.

Bodo/Glimt

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

NEC Nijmegen
No complete event data.
Bodo/Glimt
No complete event data.
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
1 2 0-15
2 2 16-30
2 2 31-45
1 3 46-60
4 61-75
5 1 76-90
Bodo/Glimt10 games · scored 23 · conceded 19
1 0-15
6 3 16-30
4 2 31-45
4 4 46-60
5 2 61-75
4 7 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.