NEC Nijmegen vs GO Ahead Eagles – 20 Sep 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 7 Sun, Sep 20 · 15:45 Goffertstadion, Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen 11th · 7 pts · 6 played WWLDL

1–1Full time

GO Ahead Eagles 9th · 9 pts · 6 played DWLDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.

NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for GO Ahead Eagles. NEC Nijmegen had 2.8 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 7.9 and had to travel 51 km.

Away travel51 kmRest days2.8 · 7.9Matches / 14d3 · 2

NEC Nijmegen50%

Draw22%

GO Ahead Eagles28%

Expected goals 1.98 – 1.44

NEC Nijmegen50%

Draw25%

GO Ahead Eagles25%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.10

NEC Nijmegen51%

Draw22%

GO Ahead Eagles27%

Expected goals 1.98 – 1.39

NEC Nijmegen42%

Draw23%

GO Ahead Eagles35%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.61

NEC Nijmegen50%

Draw22%

GO Ahead Eagles28%

Expected goals 1.92 – 1.41

Over 2.5 66% Both score 66% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nijmegen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsMartijn Vos

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 17

Team strength

NEC Nijmegen

GO Ahead Eagles

34 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26

32 Current StrengthIn forecast 24

37 AttackIn forecast 29

33 DefenceIn forecast 17

19 Form indexContext 32

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

NEC Nijmegen

Attack—

Defense risk—

GO Ahead Eagles

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

NEC Nijmegen

GO Ahead Eagles

1.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.17

2.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.65

1.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.80

-0.55 Goals minus xGContext +0.85

83% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.83 ShotsContext 15.50

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.33

27% On target shareContext 41%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

61% Box shareContext 67%

12% ConversionContext 16%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.40

11.17 Shots allowedContext 16.50

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

3.00 BlocksContext 6.20

2.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

50% Save rateContext 56%

64% PossessionIn forecast 55%

516 PassesContext 479

426 Accurate passesContext 397

83% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.58 Team ratingContext 6.80

11.67 FoulsContext 7.67

14.17 Fouls sufferedContext 10.83

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 0.83

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

2.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

2.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.18

-0.98 Goals minus xGContext +0.51

70% Scored inContext 90%

0% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.10 ShotsContext 13.40

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

30% On target shareContext 37%

8.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.67

57% Box shareContext 65%

10% ConversionContext 14%

2.83 OffsidesContext 1.43

11.70 Shots allowedContext 20.40

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

2.60 BlocksContext 7.22

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

50% Save rateContext 64%

58% PossessionIn forecast 52%

501 PassesContext 426

412 Accurate passesContext 349

82% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.59 Team ratingContext 6.80

12.30 FoulsContext 8.20

13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

NEC Nijmegen WLDLL

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,833 km in 14d

Schedule load28%Moderate

Form 19 · 4 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · -3.1 vs expected

L17 SepA · Juventus0–50.6 xPts
L12 SepA · Cambuur0–31.7 xPts
D8 SepH · Excelsior2–21.8 xPts
L5 SepH · Feyenoord1–31.4 xPts
W29 AugA · PEC Zwolle3–11.7 xPts

GO Ahead Eagles DWLDD

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel51 km147 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 32 · 6 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected

D12 SepH · Groningen1–11.6 xPts
D8 SepA · Utrecht3–31.2 xPts
L29 AugA · AZ Alkmaar2–50.6 xPts
W23 AugH · ADO Den Haag3–12.1 xPts
D16 AugA · Feyenoord2–20.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	NEC Nijmegen	GO Ahead Eagles
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 28	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 17 Sep	7.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 12 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	51 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,833 km	147 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 6	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	20.2	20

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

NEC Nijmegen Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

12N. Polster(G)

21T. Storm 4P. Schuurs 73Gabriel Brás

77A. Thomas 20N. Lebreton 6D. Nejašmić 34Kevin Kers

10D. Tadić 9T. Chery

30B. Linssen

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

GO Ahead Eagles Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Haug(G)

5D. James 4J. Kramer 26J. Dirksen 2A. Sampsted

8H. Linthorst 21M. Meulensteen

17M. Suray 16V. Edvardsen 10S. Tengstedt

9S. Sigurðarson

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

NEC Nijmegen Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

GO Ahead Eagles Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

NEC Nijmegen-1.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
GO Ahead Eagles+1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

NEC Nijmegen · Home 0.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.33

GO Ahead Eagles · Away 0.67points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-1
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 3.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	NEC Nijmegen	GO Ahead Eagles
Feyenoord	L 1–3 H	D 2–2 A
Willem II	W 4–1 A	W 4–1 H
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 NEC Nijmegen wins3 draws2 GO Ahead Eagles wins

Goals per game1.33 – 2.17 Over 2.567% Both scored83% Clean sheets0% · 17%

17 May 2026NEC Nijmegen2–1GO Ahead Eagles
5 Oct 2025GO Ahead Eagles1–1NEC Nijmegen
9 Mar 2025NEC Nijmegen2–3GO Ahead Eagles
7 Dec 2024GO Ahead Eagles5–0NEC Nijmegen
28 Jan 2024GO Ahead Eagles2–2NEC Nijmegen
26 Nov 2023NEC Nijmegen1–1GO Ahead Eagles

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	NEC Nijmegen	GO Ahead Eagles	Forecast
Scored per game	1.83	2.50
Conceded per game	2.00	2.17
Match goals	3.83	4.67	3.41
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	83%	66%
Over 3.5	67%	83%
Both teams scored	83%	100%	66%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	17%	0%
Games	6	6

	NEC Nijmegen	GO Ahead Eagles	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.90
Conceded per game	2.40	2.10
Match goals	3.80	4.00	3.41
Over 1.5	100%	90%
Over 2.5	100%	80%	66%
Over 3.5	60%	70%
Both teams scored	70%	90%	66%
Clean sheets	0%	10%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	NEC Nijmegen	GO Ahead Eagles	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.83
Corners conceded	3.17	4.50
Match total	8.17	10.33	10.53
Over 8.5	50% 3/6	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	1.67	0.83
Opponent cards	1.67	0.83
Match total	3.34	1.66	2.62
Over 3.5	67% 4/6	0% 0/6
Over 4.5	0% 0/6	0% 0/6

	NEC Nijmegen	GO Ahead Eagles	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	5.80
Corners conceded	3.22	5.90
Match total	7.89	11.70	10.53
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.40
Opponent cards	1.70	0.80
Match total	3.50	2.20	2.62
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Martijn Vos Netherlands · 17 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 2.65

Red cards0.41league 0.05

Cards 5+41%league 11%

Fouls24.2league 20.9

Penalties0.29league 0.21

Home wins29%league 31%

NEC Nijmegen2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds1

D5 Oct 25A · GO Ahead Eagles1–14
W3 Nov 24H · Groningen6–01

GO Ahead Eagles3 with this referee

Record0-3-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

D3 May 26A · Sparta Rotterdam2–25
D1 Feb 26A · FC Volendam1–16
D5 Oct 25H · NEC Nijmegen1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.