NEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Tue, Aug 11 · 18:30
Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen
20th · 1 pts · 1 played
D
First leg0–0
2–1Full time
Olympiakos Piraeus
21st · 1 pts · 1 played
D
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel2,075 kmRest days3.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real contextStrength only
NEC Nijmegen—%
Draw—%
Olympiakos Piraeus—%
Weather (Nijmegen)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMaurizio Mariani
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 114
Team strength
NEC NijmegenOlympiakos Piraeus
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L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
63
37
AttackIn forecast
54
33
DefenceIn forecast
68
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOlympiakos Piraeus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenOlympiakos Piraeus
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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—
Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.40
2.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.62
-0.80
Goals minus xGContext
-0.88
90%
Scored inContext
30%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
70%
18.90
ShotsContext
18.00
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
32%
On target shareContext
26%
12.20
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
64%
Box shareContext
55%
7%
ConversionContext
4%
2.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.00
Shots allowedContext
5.70
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.30
2.33
BlocksContext
2.25
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
75%
Save rateContext
82%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
403
PassesContext
488
322
Accurate passesContext
397
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.10
FoulsContext
11.60
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
L
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km4,151 km in 14d
Schedule load18%Low
Form 33 · 0 pts vs 2.0 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected
- L8 AugH · Telstar1–22.0 xPts
Olympiakos Piraeus
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel2,075 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
Olympiakos Piraeus |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 18 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 8 Aug | 7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 4 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 2,075 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,151 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 36.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville
3P. Sandler
21T. Storm
6D. Nejašmić
99Clement Bischoff
10D. Tadić
20N. Lebreton
25S. Ouaissa
30B. Linssen
9T. Chery
Olympiakos Piraeus
Confirmed XI
31B. Popović(G)
70S. Onyemaechi
5L. Pirola
45P. Retsos
23Rodinei
32S. Hezze
14Dani García
20Jota Silva
8Gustavo Sá
10Gelson Martins
9A. El Kaabi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Olympiakos Piraeus
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
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Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
No home games yet this season.
Olympiakos Piraeus · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 NEC Nijmegen wins1 draws0 Olympiakos Piraeus wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 4 Aug 2026Olympiakos Piraeus0–0NEC Nijmegen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | Olympiakos Piraeus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 100% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| NEC Nijmegen | Olympiakos Piraeus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 0.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 100% | |
| Games | 10 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | Olympiakos Piraeus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 7.00 | 10.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.00 | 4.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | Olympiakos Piraeus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 8.75 | 10.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 2.90 | 4.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Maurizio Mariani Italy · 114 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.86league 4.24
Red cards0.18league 0.24
Cards 5+37%league 41%
Fouls23.8league 24.6
Penalties0.24league 0.31
Home wins46%league 51%
NEC NijmegenNo previous matches with this referee.
Olympiakos Piraeus1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W20 Jan 26H · Bayer Leverkusen2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC Nijmegen1 games · scored 0 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Olympiakos Piraeus1 games · scored 0 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
Olympiakos Piraeus10 games · scored 7 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.