NEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
NEC Nijmegen
3rd · 55 pts · 31 played
WDWDD
First leg2–2
1–1Full time
Telstar
16th · 30 pts · 31 played
LWLLW
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were clear favourites.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 24). NEC Nijmegen had 7 days of rest, Telstar 10 and had to travel 107 km.
Away travel107 kmRest days7 · 10Matches / 14d1 · 1
NEC Nijmegen62%
Draw20%
Telstar18%
NEC Nijmegen56%
Draw24%
Telstar20%
NEC Nijmegen62%
Draw20%
Telstar18%
NEC Nijmegen54%
Draw22%
Telstar24%
NEC Nijmegen61%
Draw21%
Telstar19%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 53
Team strength
NEC NijmegenTelstar
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
37
AttackIn forecast
24
33
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTelstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenTelstar
2.35
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.39
1.58
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
+0.61
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
97%
Scored inContext
74%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
16.26
ShotsContext
12.55
6.65
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.87
41%
On target shareContext
38%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.07
62%
Box shareContext
62%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
2.42
OffsidesContext
2.24
11.32
Shots allowedContext
15.74
5.03
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.37
2.52
BlocksContext
4.62
3.53
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.57
69%
Save rateContext
72%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
421
PassesContext
364
336
Accurate passesContext
283
80%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.39
FoulsContext
11.03
11.26
Fouls sufferedContext
9.97
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.19
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
100%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
17.80
ShotsContext
12.50
6.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
37%
On target shareContext
43%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
59%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.88
10.80
Shots allowedContext
16.80
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.44
2.63
BlocksContext
5.00
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.56
72%
Save rateContext
75%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
425
PassesContext
390
337
Accurate passesContext
307
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.94
11.30
FoulsContext
11.10
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
8.10
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km165 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Telstar
Rest10 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel107 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
Telstar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 10Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 107 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 165 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville
17B. Nuytinck
14E. Dasa
20N. Lebreton
3P. Sandler
6D. Nejašmić
25S. Ouaissa
23K. Sano
30B. Linssen
10T. Chery
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
6D. Bakker
21D. Koswal
14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo
2J. Hardeveld
23C. Hatenboer
4G. Offerhaus
11T. Noslin
27P. Brouwer
8T. Owusu
37Sem van Duijn
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Telstar
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Telstar+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
1.87points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-4-3
- Scored
- 2.53
- Conceded
- 1.53
Telstar · Away
0.87points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-8
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | NEC Nijmegen | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Twente | D 1–1 AD 3–3 H | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Feyenoord | D 1–1 HW 4–2 A | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Excelsior | W 2–0 AW 5–0 H | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Heerenveen | D 2–2 HL 2–3 A | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | W 3–2 AL 3–5 H | W 3–1 HW 2–0 A |
| FC Volendam | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 2–3 HL 2–3 A | W 4–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Ajax | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | L 2–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | W 4–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Utrecht | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A | L 1–4 AD 1–1 H |
| Heracles | W 4–1 HW 4–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H |
| NAC Breda | W 4–3 AW 3–0 H | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Groningen | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 AW 4–2 H |
| Points | 54 of 90 · 1.80 per game | 29 of 90 · 0.97 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 NEC Nijmegen wins1 draws0 Telstar wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 13 Dec 2025Telstar2–2NEC Nijmegen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.35 | 1.39 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.58 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.94 | 3.10 | 3.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 97% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 74% | 58% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 61% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 81% | 65% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 3% | 26% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| NEC Nijmegen | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 4.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.07 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 9.74 | 11.06 | 10.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 18/30 | 80% 24/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 16/30 | 67% 20/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 14/30 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.81 | 1.26 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.87 | 1.74 | |
| Match total | 3.68 | 3.00 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 13/31 | 29% 9/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 13/31 | 23% 7/31 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 7.20 | |
| Match total | 10.23 | 11.10 | 10.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.60 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.26league 3.12
Red cards0.15league 0.17
Cards 5+28%league 25%
Fouls19.7league 21.2
Penalties0.26league 0.22
Home wins45%league 45%
NEC Nijmegen4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D21 Feb 26A · Ajax1–11
- W31 Aug 24A · Fortuna Sittard3–00
- L9 Feb 24A · Waalwijk0–23
- W6 Dec 23A · AZ Alkmaar2–11
Telstar1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L11 Jan 26H · Ajax2–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC Nijmegen31 games · scored 73 · conceded 49
8
6
0-15
9
7
16-30
11
15
31-45
15
9
46-60
14
6
61-75
16
6
76-90
Telstar31 games · scored 43 · conceded 53
5
6
0-15
4
8
16-30
8
9
31-45
6
4
46-60
9
10
61-75
11
16
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
3
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
