NEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for NEC Nijmegen. NEC Nijmegen had 3.9 days of rest, Telstar 83.1 and had to travel 107 km.
Away travel107 kmRest days3.9 · 83.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
NEC Nijmegen58%
Draw22%
Telstar20%
NEC Nijmegen54%
Draw24%
Telstar22%
NEC Nijmegen58%
Draw22%
Telstar20%
NEC Nijmegen50%
Draw24%
Telstar26%
NEC Nijmegen58%
Draw22%
Telstar21%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 79
Team strength
NEC Nijmegen
Telstar
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
37
AttackIn forecast
24
33
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTelstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenTelstar
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
2.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.53
Goals minus xGContext
+0.56
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
18.90
ShotsContext
12.10
6.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
35%
On target shareContext
46%
12.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
63%
Box shareContext
74%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.88
9.90
Shots allowedContext
15.00
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.22
2.38
BlocksContext
4.44
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
79%
Save rateContext
75%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
391
PassesContext
362
307
Accurate passesContext
280
79%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.96
11.90
FoulsContext
11.20
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km4,151 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Telstar
Rest83.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel107 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
Telstar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 4 Aug | 83.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 107 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,151 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville
6D. Nejašmić
2B. Pereira
99Clement Bischoff
8I. Hansen-Aarøen
35Jamiro Monteiro
25S. Ouaissa
20N. Lebreton
9T. Chery
10D. Tadić
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
2J. Hardeveld
43M. Peersman
4A. Soualhia
3G. Alders
10T. Owusu
17N. Rossen
11S. Hetli
27P. Brouwer
7Rui Mendes
9Jelani Seedorf
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Telstar
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Telstar+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
No home games yet this season.
Telstar · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 NEC Nijmegen wins2 draws0 Telstar wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 2 May 2026NEC Nijmegen1–1Telstar
- 13 Dec 2025Telstar2–2NEC Nijmegen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 57% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| NEC Nijmegen | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.50 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 13.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 0.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| NEC Nijmegen | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.11 | 6.88 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 11.63 | 13.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 79 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.47league 0.00
Red cards0.19league 0.00
Cards 5+32%league 0%
Fouls19.9league 17.0
Penalties0.18league 0.00
Home wins35%league 0%
NEC Nijmegen5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L28 Feb 26H · Fortuna Sittard2–31
- D20 Dec 25H · Ajax2–24
- W9 Nov 25H · Groningen2–01
- L10 Aug 24H · Twente1–20
- L13 Aug 23H · Excelsior3–41
TelstarNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC NijmegenTelstarNEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 21 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
6
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
