Newcastle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Bournemouth. Newcastle had 6.8 days of rest, Bournemouth 6.9 and had to travel 473 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel473 kmRest days6.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Newcastle41%
Draw24%
Bournemouth35%
Newcastle43%
Draw26%
Bournemouth31%
Newcastle42%
Draw24%
Bournemouth34%
Newcastle33%
Draw24%
Bournemouth43%
Newcastle41%
Draw24%
Bournemouth35%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)
18°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 21 km/h
- Humidity 51%
RefereeRobert Jones
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 145
Team strength
Newcastle
Bournemouth
77
L90 StrengthIn forecast
78
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
61
AttackIn forecast
83
61
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBournemouth
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NewcastleBournemouth
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
2.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.05
+0.85
Goals minus xGContext
-0.41
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.00
ShotsContext
11.00
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
25%
On target shareContext
41%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
55%
Box shareContext
78%
17%
ConversionContext
9%
1.50
OffsidesContext
—
22.00
Shots allowedContext
13.00
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
9.50
BlocksContext
—
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
69%
Save rateContext
69%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
335
PassesContext
399
269
Accurate passesContext
322
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.12
Team ratingContext
6.96
12.50
FoulsContext
11.00
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
3.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
80%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.30
ShotsContext
12.80
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
33%
On target shareContext
34%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
62%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.25
OffsidesContext
1.75
16.10
Shots allowedContext
12.70
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
5.40
BlocksContext
4.78
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
70%
Save rateContext
70%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
428
PassesContext
421
351
Accurate passesContext
343
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.94
Team ratingContext
7.00
10.10
FoulsContext
12.20
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Newcastle
DW
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km796 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 68 · 4 pts vs 1.9 for an average club · +1.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Newcastle |
Bournemouth |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Premier League 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 6.9Premier League 2026-2027, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 473 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 796 km | 616 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.3 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Newcastle
Confirmed XI
21L. Horníček(G)
3L. Hall
4S. Botman
12M. Thiaw
37A. Dedić
67L. Miley
6Nico González
11H. Barnes
28J. Willock
19A. Elanga
9Y. Wissa
Bournemouth
Confirmed XI
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert
14António Silva
5J. Hill
15A. Smith
8A. Scott
12T. Adams
16M. Tavernier
19J. Kluivert
37Rayan
9Evanilson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Newcastle
Absences are shown before kick-off
Bournemouth
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Newcastle-1.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Bournemouth+1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Newcastle · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Bournemouth · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
0 Newcastle wins6 draws3 Bournemouth wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.67
Over 2.544%
Both scored78%
Clean sheets11% · 22%
- 18 Apr 2026Newcastle1–2Bournemouth
- 10 Jan 2026Newcastle2–2Bournemouth
- 21 Sep 2025Bournemouth0–0Newcastle
- 18 Jan 2025Newcastle1–4Bournemouth
- 25 Aug 2024Bournemouth1–1Newcastle
- 17 Feb 2024Newcastle2–2Bournemouth
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Newcastle | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.50 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Newcastle | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.70 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Newcastle | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.50 | 7.50 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 14.00 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 4.00 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Newcastle | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 11.40 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.40 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Jones 145 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.01league 3.76
Red cards0.10league 0.05
Cards 5+41%league 29%
Fouls22.7league 22.6
Penalties0.25league 0.19
Home wins46%league 48%
Newcastle16 with this referee
Record9-2-5
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.2
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- L24 May 26A · Fulham0–22
- W30 Dec 25A · Burnley3–11
- L2 Nov 25A · West Ham1–32
- D21 Sep 25A · Bournemouth0–01
- W7 Apr 25A · Leicester3–00
Bournemouth10 with this referee
Record5-3-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.9
Pens for · against4 · 0
- W3 May 26H · Crystal Palace3–00
- D21 Sep 25H · Newcastle0–02
- L2 Apr 25H · Ipswich1–21
- D14 Jan 25A · Chelsea2–23
- D29 Dec 24A · Fulham2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Newcastle2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Bournemouth2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
3
76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
1
7
76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
