Nice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nice were slight favourites.
Nice were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 29). Nice had 6.9 days of rest, Auxerre 6.1 and had to travel 538 km.
Away travel538 kmRest days6.9 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Nice54%
Draw25%
Auxerre21%
Nice54%
Draw25%
Auxerre21%
Nice54%
Draw25%
Auxerre21%
Nice46%
Draw27%
Auxerre27%
Nice54%
Draw25%
Auxerre21%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nice)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremy Stinat
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 77
Team strength
Nice
Auxerre
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
26
AttackIn forecast
39
35
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAuxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NiceAuxerre
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
60%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.20
ShotsContext
9.60
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
31%
On target shareContext
34%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.56
63%
Box shareContext
55%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.80
13.20
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.40
BlocksContext
3.80
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
70%
Save rateContext
78%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
447
PassesContext
398
378
Accurate passesContext
329
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.03
Team ratingContext
7.00
11.10
FoulsContext
12.50
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nice
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Auxerre
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel538 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nice |
Auxerre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 16 Aug | 6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 538 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nice
Confirmed XI
80Y. Diouf(G)
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
28A. Bah
33A. Mendy
26M. Bard
99S. Abdul Samed
6H. Boudaoui
20T. Louchet
7J. Boga
21I. Jansson
90Kevin Carlos
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
14G. Mensah
92C. Akpa
4F. Sierralta
3G. Osho
29M. Senaya
23I. Osman
5K. Danois
42E. Owusu
7J. Casimir
10L. Sinayoko
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nice
Absences are shown before kick-off
Auxerre
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nice+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Auxerre+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nice · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Auxerre · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Nice wins3 draws1 Auxerre wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.25
Over 2.525%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 14 Mar 2025Nice1–1Auxerre
- 18 Aug 2024Auxerre2–1Nice
- 3 Mar 2023Nice1–1Auxerre
- 16 Oct 2022Auxerre1–1Nice
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nice | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Nice | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nice | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 8.00 | 9.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Nice | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.25 | 6.11 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 10.22 | 9.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremy Stinat France · 77 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.68league 3.09
Red cards0.19league 0.18
Cards 5+35%league 36%
Fouls24.6league 22.5
Penalties0.31league 0.36
Home wins42%league 55%
Nice10 with this referee
Record6-2-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds1
- L10 May 25A · Rennes0–21
- W20 Apr 25H · Angers2–11
- D10 Nov 24H · Lille2–22
- W1 Sep 24A · Angers4–14
- W19 Apr 24H · Lorient3–00
Auxerre5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.4
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W22 Feb 25H · Marseille3–01
- D14 Dec 24H · Lens2–23
- D27 Oct 24A · Lyon2–24
- W27 Sep 24H · Stade Brestois 293–02
- L29 Jan 23H · Montpellier0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nice1 games · scored 0 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Auxerre1 games · scored 1 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
